Outlooks – Page 53
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White papers
Emerging market debt: an active approach
Emerging market debt (EMD) has already broadened and deepened significantly in the last few decades and as the asset class has developed, it has become more appealing to a broader investor base. Issuance has increased, thereby improving liquidity.
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White papers
Central bank watch: Ramping up the inflation fight
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Central Bank Watch is a qualitative assessment of the central banks for the Group of Ten nations plus China and South Korea.
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Finding a third way between throttling energy demand and dirty fossil fuel
The war in Ukraine is significantly impacting energy security, particularly in Europe. Beyond oil & gas markets, the conflict has a variety of negative macroeconomic effects. Notably, the fighting in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia are disrupting commodity supplies, exacerbating ‘cost push’ inflation set in motion by the pandemic and its aftermath.
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White papers
2022 Midyear Outlook - Long-term perspective on markets and economies
We are living through a pivotal time in history, marked by geopolitical realignment, high inflation, volatile financial markets and the end of a 40-year period of declining interest rates. The title of this new era could be Brave New World or Back to the Future. But the title I would select is Revenge of the Boomers, because a lot of these events are rhyming with the past, particularly the early 1960s.
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What is the impact of Covid and the Ukraine crisis on fiscal policy?
The past two years have brought not one but two generation-defining events – Covid and the war in Ukraine. Together, they will leave a far-reaching economic and societal legacies.
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What will drive financial markets over the next five years?
Dividing a portfolio’s investments more or less evenly between developed market stocks and bonds has proved a rewarding strategy over the past few decades. The annualised return investors have secured by pursuing this approach has been in the high single digits – gains that have come courtesy of steady economic growth, an almost continuous fall in interest rates and inflation, and relatively calm financial market conditions.
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Macroeconomic projections for the Italian economy and fixed income implications
Amid the cost of living crisis, ongoing since last autumn, Italy saw unexpected resilience in Q1 as the initial GDP growth estimate of -0.2% was revised up to 0.1% QoQ. However, there was no good news on domestic demand: a 0.8% QoQ contraction in household consumption does not bode well for the future, as consumer confidence declined further during Q2.
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Did You Miss the Commodity Boom?
Commodity prices are up substantially this year, but we believe structural supply and demand imbalances mean we are still in the early innings of this cycle.
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*Private market assets: the new funding stream that’s here to stay*
Private market assets have transformed the investment landscape in the 14 years since the global financial crisis.
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After the Revaluation, the Slowdown
Our Asset Allocation Committee believes that, whether we enter a recession or not, the expected slowdown and ongoing market volatility could feel like one for investors.
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Climate Change: How investors can help deliver a Just Transition
The concept of a Just Transition is not new. US labour leaders noted the conflict between jobs and the environment as far back as the early 1990s, but it has gained momentum in recent years.
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White papers
French elections results open a phase of political gridlock
The fragmentation of votes into irreconcilable political blocs with no absolute majority creates a political situation unprecedented under the Fifth Republic. Financial markets do not seem to be concerned in the short term, but the absence of a clear policy stance could have consequences in the medium term. ...
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White papers
New diversity in green bonds may offer fertile ground for investors
The green bonds sector is changing. Years of powerful growth have not only brought it into the mainstream but have also delivered a richer, more varied universe for investors. As the world seeks the funds that will finance the energy transition and the road to net zero, we think this diversification will continue and evolve, rewarding those with the know-how to spot potential wrinkles as the opportunity set expands.
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White papers
400G Networking: Empowering Data Centers
As data consumption rises, so does the need for hyperscale data centers. What opportunities could this bring?
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The ECB Joins the Growing Circle of Hawks
The ECB officially joined the hawkish camp, announcing a more aggressive path of rate hikes, which led markets to reprice the euro curve higher. Meanwhile, despite a move higher in initial claims, a strong U.S. jobs report will keep the FOMC on its hawkish rate-hiking path.
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White papers
The Space Economy Achieves Lift-Off
Space-based industry is much more down-to-earth than you might think—and every day it touches more and more of our lives
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White papers
The Fed Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop
The Fed turned more hawkish this week, upgrading its outlook for the Fed Funds rate, and lowering its outlook on growth—leading to a risk-off tone in markets. Meanwhile, the ECB announced a new tool to help address the uneven transmission of monetary policy normalization.
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White papers
Four questions on impact investing
Impact investing has been described as the new frontier for socially responsible investing. The strategy, targeting a financial return and an (extra-financial) impact, can be implemented in listed as well as unlisted markets. Here is what you need to know.
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White papers
Energy shock: War sparks bond risks and opportunities globally
Views from our fixed income experts on how the shift toward a zero carbon future impacts sovereign debt in Europe, the importance of credit fundamentals among US shale-oil companies and how rising rates are creating different outcomes in emerging markets.
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White papers
A focus on inflation
The conflict in Ukraine has delivered a commodity price shock similar to that of the early 1970s, shattering hopes that the inflationary uptick may prove to be transitory.