• United States: After the contraction in Q1 (resulting from an outsized detraction from net exports and a payback from the surge in inventories in Q4, not from weak demand) we expect sequential growth to pick up from Q2 and stabilise around moderate rates of growth consistent with reaching 1.6% in Q4/Q4 22 and 1.5% in Q4/Q4 23. Domestic demand will significantly slow on tightening financial conditions, bringing growth below potential sooner than expected. Inflationary pressures remain elevated from both headline volatile components (energy and food inflation) and stickier core drivers, remaining above 6% till year end.

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