Outlooks – Page 61
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White papersEconomic Scenarios in the Midst of War
Numbing economic sanctions on Russia, the delivery of arms to the government of Ukraine to stiffen resistance, and the remilitarization of Europe mean there is no turning back. The world has now changed and it is a difficult task to sketch with any certainty the economic impact.
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White papersUpcoming: Principal Speaker Series – A conversation with Dr. Lawrence H. Summers
Join us as we welcome Dr. Lawrence H. Summers, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, immediately following the pivotal March FOMC meeting. Seema Shah, Managing Director, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Global Investors, will host a timely and engaging conversation on the state of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve’s response, and how investors can prepare for the volatile period ahead.
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White papersThe Long View: Russia-Ukraine War Has Lasting Implications for Investing
When Russian president Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, he unraveled decades of efforts to cement peace in Europe after the Cold War. For investors, the new world order has shaken up broad issues that shape our analysis of asset classes and securities.
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White papersSeven Predictions Amid the Rising Unpredictability
As the Ukraine War spirals toward broader geopolitical conflict, some elements of the outlook are already coming into view.
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White papersRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating
The second week of conflict in the Ukraine was marked by additional market volatility. Equities are down across the board. The demand for safe-haven assets temporarily pushed the 10-year Treasury down to 1.7% before it retraced to 1.9% amid rising inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, gold has remained well supported, briefly moving above $2000/ounce.
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White papersMonths When Decades Happen
Europe enters this dangerous period on solid footing. Unemployment is at record lows. Wage growth remains subdued. Russia’s war in Ukraine adds a strong inflation headwind to the ongoing expansion.
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White papersThe Fog of War Clouds Economic Outlooks
The war in Ukraine continues to dominate market moves, leading to volatility in risk assets, and the safe haven bid is still in focus amid a stronger U.S. dollar and higher precious metal prices. Commodities are soaring, with BBG Commodity Index on track for the biggest gain since 1960.
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White papersPositioning Liquid Credit Portfolios For Rising Rates & Inflation
Martin Horne, Head of Global Public Fixed Income, discusses how to mitigate the risk of rising rates and inflation, touching on the potential benefits of floating rate assets and short-duration strategies.
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White papersSolvency II review to strengthen insurance sector
Now awaiting passage into law is a major review of the 2016 Solvency II regulation governing the solvency capital requirements (SCR) of European insurers. The amendments proposed by the European Commission (EC) and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) are intended to ensure the insurance sector remains fully resilient to future market shocks.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - March 2022
We amend the narrative of our scenario to take into account the consequences of the war in Ukraine. We increase the probability of our downside scenario to 30% (from 15%) to reflect the rising risk of stagflation.
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White papersKeeping up With Demand
In this piece from Infrastructure Investor, Pieter Welman talks about institutional investors’ growing interest in infrastructure debt and touches on how the market has evolved over the past decade.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - March 2022
The Russia/Ukraine crisis is pushing the regime shift one step further with more severe economic implications for some regions, in this case Europe because of its energy dependence and geographic proximity.
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White papersGauging the impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict on EM debt
The events that are unfolding in Ukraine are deeply upsetting and one cannot help but be affected by what we are reading and seeing in the news. Investing in the midst of a conflict can be difficult and bring out heightened emotions. In the context of these heightened emotions, it is helpful to stand back and assess the situation.
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White papersRussia attacks Ukraine: Markets will have to readjust to the shock
Market reaction: The worst-case scenario of a full blown attack to Ukraine has materialised. It’s risk-off on Russian assets; global risk assets are under severe pressure.
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White papersWhy banks get butterflies when fintechs have wings
Fiorino begins a short series of articles examining how mainstream banks and insurers are faring as a flurry of start-up enterprises disturb the competitive atmosphere…
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White papers‘Greenflation’ – Navigating the climate policy, oil price and inflation nexus
Given the relationship between climate policies, oil prices and inflation and the difficulties in managing inflation through interest rate policy, it is worth taking a closer look at the dynamics involved. How might climate policies, oil prices and inflation evolve given the outlook for oil? To what extent are oil prices and consumer price inflation actually linked?
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White papersThe invasion of Ukraine: investment implications
Russian military activity with Ukraine is escalating rapidly, with growing uncertainty. As events unfold, we suggest investors remain focused on their long-term goals, but remain attuned to the potential shifts in and disruptions to inflation, growth, energy prices and global financial markets.
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White papersTackling climate change through outcomes-focused stewardship
With the publication by EOS at Federated Hermes of the 2021 Annual Review of engagement and voting highlights, Dr Hans-Christoph Hirt, head of EOS, reflects on the climate crisis and the challenges it will pose for investors in 2022 and beyond.
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White papersFive questions on asset-backed securities
David Favier, senior portfolio manager of European ABS strategies, reflects on the impact of the pandemic and the outlook for 2022.
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White papersThe return of the European consumer
European consumer spending rebounded in 2021, but it lagged the much stronger recovery in the United States. In 2022, I expect that gap to close. Despite numerous headwinds, like soaring energy prices and falling consumer confidence, I believe Europeans will be saving less of their income this year and that there is enough pent-up demand to propel robust consumption growth.
