The Russia/Ukraine crisis is pushing the regime shift one step further with more severe economic implications for some regions, in this case Europe because of its energy dependence and geographic proximity.
While it is still difficult to anticipate how macro fundamentals will be impacted through this crisis because of the uncertainty of its evolution and final income, we expect inflation in Eurozone to remain stubbornly high during the year on energy and food, negatively affecting both demand and production. This context could be indeed consistent with a temporary recessionary outcome in the lower end of our projections.
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