Outlooks – Page 96
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White papersConversations With……Fred Ingham
Reflecting on three years managing the Neuberger Berman Uncorrelated Strategies Fund
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White papersVixology
How VIX history rhymes—and why we believe option writing strategies are still attractive despite the huge equity market rally.
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White papers2020 midyear outlook - 20/20 vision: a clearer path for growth
Our 2020 market and investment theme, “20/20 vision: a clearer path for growth,” was thrown for a loop in March. But we think this theme is starting to reemerge as the world recovers from the deepest (and perhaps shortest) recession in history. In the months ahead, we expect market volatility to remain elevated and portfolio construction to be more challenging, but Nuveen’s Global Investment Committee still sees value across asset classes. We remain committed to offering investors of all types and outcomes goals and ideas for how to navigate today’s — and tomorrow’s — markets.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - July 2020
United States: while hard data help size the lockdown-induced impact on Q2 activity and production, soft and high-frequency data are showing a gradual pickup. As pent-up demand comes through, activity will rebound in Q3, followed by further improvement in Q4. We expect GDP to drop by 4.5%-6.5% y/y in 2020, followed by a rebound of 3.0- 4.0% y/y in 2021, and to return to its pre-Covid-19 level by mid-2022. Lockdowns have also impacted inflation, which is driven by shifts in demand and has exhibited short-term weaknesses in 2020, with reflating forecast in 2021 on base effects and a pickup in demand.
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White papersThe Trough is in—Let the Healing Begin
While there is still a long path to recovery, global June flash PMIs confirmed we have passed the trough as contraction eased. The U.S. Employment report will be released next week, and the pressure is on for Britain and Japan to come up with a deal.
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White papersHow the COVID-19 Crisis Validates Sustainable Investing
The economic and market challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic have put investors through a trial by fire this year. Yet the crisis has also validated sustainable investing strategies focused on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.
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White papersMarkets scenarios & risks - July 2020
We marginally amend the narrative of our central and alternative scenario on the back of recent developments. We also increase
the probability of our central scenario from 50 to 60% while reducing the likelihood of the upside scenario from 30 to 20%. -
White papersSpotlight on Sterling credit - Identifying opportunities
The strong recovery in sterling credit in Q2 can mask some underlying developments within the index, creating both risk and opportunity. Much of the current attractive credit premium at the overall index level may be attributed to a relatively small number of sectors and issuers, while in the current economic climate, even those sectors traditionally considered lower risk, may be more vulnerable than many investors think.
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White papersThematics views - July 2020
Covid-19 is a symmetric shock with asymmetric outcomes. Existin imbalances within Europe such as public debt, economic models or vision for the union, turn to cracks and the EU is facing fragmentation risks. However, the EU should be able to get over it as it did with the Global Financial Crisis.
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White papersWeekly Investment Update – 24 June 2020
The number of countries lifting their COVID-19 lockdowns is increasing, and sentiment indicators are picking up. Levels of mobility are accelerating. This should help the real economy to spring back at a faster pace than was originally envisaged. Data appears to be bottoming and markets are expecting it to improve at a stronger pace going forward.
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White papers“Build Back Better”: COVID-19 Brings the “S” from ESG into Focus
Dislocations resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic shine a light on ESG issues.
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White papersThe day after #8 - Deglobalisation could improve diversification but also exacerbate financial contagion
In recent years world trade dynamics have definitely shown an accentuated inversion of the globalisation trend and its robust contribution to global economic performance. The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) marked a historic turning point in the degree of global economic integration. Since 2007/08 global trade has entered a period of increasingly protectionist policies (trade barriers, national subsidies, national champions), decelerating growth in trade-intensive sectors, rising policy uncertainty and more recently, trade tensions.
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White papersDefined Benefit pensions de-risking: A covenant and investment view
In the midst of the COVID-19 shock, Felix Mantz from Lincoln Pensions and Joachim Sudre from Aviva Investors explore how defined benefit pension schemes should plan their journey towards an end game and adopt a more holistic approach to risk.
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White papersFixed Income: The Fed’s final frontier—negative rates or yield curve control?
What’s next for policymakers on supporting the economy? Dr. Sonal Desai offers her take.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views – July 2020
Covid-19 has triggered a sequence of economic and financial market narratives and is giving way to a new status quo characterised by extreme fiscal and monetary measures, to which markets have responded well, though some volatility has returned in the past few days. In effect, these policy measures are painting a new picture, that of a “day after” renaissance.
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White papersMarket weekly – What to expect after the Great Pandemic of 2020 (podcast)
The unprecedented crisis caused by COVID-19 has left asset allocators disorientated. Uncertainty has deepened and the outlook is now for bond and equity returns to be lower for even longer, making the hunt for yield all the more acute for investors.
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White papersAsset allocation – Dealing with ‘lower for longer’
The unprecedented crisis caused by COVID-19 has left asset allocators disorientated. Uncertainty has deepened and the outlook now is for bond and equity returns to be lower for even longer, making the hunt for yield all the more acute for investors.
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White papersEmerging Markets Take Technology Leadership
In the final post of our three-part series, the Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity Team explains how emerging market companies are innovating.
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White papersThe sustainability of sustainability: green finance during the pandemic
Sustainable finance has been resilient amid the market shock, as a heightened awareness of environmental, social and governance (ESG) behaviours has coincided with a surge of regulatory changes and an uptick in green capital-market activities.
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White papers(Weekly Pandemic) Market Commentary – Mind the curve
The virus - galloping, but less deadly. Covid is spreading like never before, the stats say. 19 June saw 177k new Covid cases, the highest ever. The 5-day rolling average, currently at 143k, is 50k higher than in mid-May. Arguably, the numbers today are likely more truthful than in the past, because there is more testing. In a freshly released Focal Point “Covid-19: proprietary models set to monitor pandemic evolution” (online on 22 June), we advocate basing cases estimates on deaths – a measure less affected by testing issues.
