Global Investment Views – July 2020

Covid-19 has triggered a sequence of economic and financial market narratives and is giving way to a new status quo characterised by extreme fiscal and monetary measures, to which markets have responded well, though some volatility has returned in the past few days. In effect, these policy measures are painting a new picture, that of a “day after” renaissance.

Markets have already priced in their rosiest scenario: the end of the worst of the virus cycle, the possibility that a second wave will be weaker than the first, and a cure and vaccine arriving fast and becoming broadly available before a new pandemic pushes the economy into a fresh wave of lockdowns. Some recent data supported this view, such as the PMI bottoming out (still weak) and the US job market surprising on the upside (though it is trending down).

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