All Fixed Income articles – Page 95
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IG Credit: The Hidden Risks of “Safe” Bond Strategies
Traditional investment grade bond strategies are meant to help their owners sleep at night. But hidden credit and interest rate risks make benchmark-hugging more hazardous than many realize. Counterintuitively, CLOs, ABS and EM debt may be part of the solution.
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Turkey: Inflation And Monetary Policy
January’s inflation report and last inflation figures: The Governor of the CBRT debriefed last week on the first inflation report of the year January inflation figure released at 12.15% yoy, higher than in December (11.84%). The rise in housing, electricity and energy were the main drivers pf this increase. ...
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Another Breakthrough Year for China Bonds
The market made it into global indices but also broke records for defaults in 2019 and is facing uncertainty from the coronavirus: we take stock for 2020.
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Sentiment Shift Fuels Lower-Rated Rally
Uncovering relative value across high yield in 2020 may require looking in less obvious places.
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EM Local Debt’s Time to Shine?
Emerging markets (EM) local currency denominated debt may be poised to outperform.
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Risk-on, Risk-off & Repeat
Sentiment continues to swing back and forth in the collateralized loan obligation (CLO) market, but bifurcation remains the constant.
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Rates, Rallies & Risks
Investment grade credit markets posted a banner year in 2019; can the good times continue to roll?
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Europe needs new approach to escape economic malaise
With monetary policy seemingly reaching the limits of its effectiveness, another approach is required for the continent to avoid ‘Japanification’. We believe a focus on productive sustainable investment could not only stimulate growth, but also bring about social and environmental benefits
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Focal Point US outlook: a soft landing supported by the Fed
We expect the US economy to cool this year. Growth will likely ease from 2.2% to 1.6% because of the full effect of tariffs becoming effective during the first half of the year. The lagged impact of the 2019 rate cuts and that of the additional reduction we expect for Q2 will engineer a soft landing of the economy, despite still substantial headwinds. The Fed will take big steps to adapt its monetary policy strategy to a low-inflation, low-interest rates world. The broad view of this strategy should be clearer by summer, but the dovish bias it will most likely produce will be welcomed by markets.
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Risks Rebalanced - Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 1Q 2020
On Tuesday, January 14, Erik Knutzen, CIO of Multi-Asset Class, Gorky Urquieta, Co-Head of Emerging Markets Debt, and Conrad Saldanha, Senior Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Equity, discussed the AAC’s latest views on navigating the current market environment.
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Stable Growth, Policy in Transition - Fixed Income Investment Outlook 1Q 2020
With a stable economy likely to provide a positive environment for credit this year, shifts in monetary policy could contribute to more frequent volatility in fixed income markets, while political developments will be an ongoing risk.
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Strategic Relative Value – Q1 2020
Persistent central bank liquidity and easing geopolitical tensions should support a continued rally in risk assets this year. However, the significant disconnect between elevated valuations and only modest economic growth means risk assets are vulnerable to a deterioration in sentiment so investors should also maintain some defensive positioning.
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On My Mind: Oops! They Qe’d Again
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has expanded its balance sheet by about $400 billion since last September. This has reversed more than half of the balance sheet unwinding (about $700 billion), which the Fed had started in October 2017.1 A growing number of analysts and investors have concluded that the Fed is once again engaged in quantitative easing (QE). The Fed denies it.
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Multi-asset allocation views: Uncertainty clouds the outlook for European assets
Sunil Krishnan considers whether Europe can break out of its economic malaise and the factors investors should watch out for in 2020.
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Flexible credit: six drivers of conviction
What are the key determinants of an active credit fund manager’s decision to invest? From curve and convexity through to sustainability and sizing, we assess six drivers of conviction.
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EMD in 2020: A year of “alpha,” and the return of the “political economy”
As we end another tumultuous year for emerging markets (EM), it’s a good time to pause and reflect on what the start of the third decade of the 21st century holds for emerging market debt (EMD) investors.
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Delta: our 2020 credit-sector outlook
From electric-vehicle sales to US pharmaceuticals and the strength of European banks, our credit analysts provide their 2020 outlooks for industry sectors.
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Why fixed-income investors should factor sustainability into investment decisions
Why should fixed-income investors factor sustainability into their investment decisions, and what are the approaches available to them? What drives an impactful engagement with a credit issuer? These are some of the key questions that our clients and prospective investors ask about ESG and engagement in fixed-income markets.
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Economic Resilience, Fed And Elections To Drive Us Markets In 2020
2019 proved a strong year for US assets, with US equity markets recording the strongest annual total return since 2013 and the US aggregate bond index up almost 9.0%. In addition, the past decade proved the best ever for the S&P 500 index, which returned 256% overall, well above its historical average. It was also the decade when US equities dominated other markets, with an outperformance of more than 90% versus the MSCI World index.
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Multi-asset allocation views: The pros and cons of higher-yielding fixed income
Sunil Krishnan asks whether higher-yielding fixed income assets remain good diversifiers for multi-asset portfolios in the current environment.