All Fixed Income articles – Page 31
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Slowly Slowing
One year since the inception of our Stagflation Shock scenario, the global economy continues to face elevated inflation and falling growth. Both are slowing, but they are slowing—slowly. And the descent has not been smooth.
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What the ‘next normal’ means for fixed income: reimagining core bonds
After three years of COVID, roller-coaster economies, inflation and central banks’ frantic fight against an uncertain future, it appears we may finally return to the world we used to know. The “new normal” – where rates are low, volatility subdued, and investors are willing to take on more risk – could yet return. But can it be so simple? After all the upheaval, are we really returning to the pre-COVID era?
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Income Generator: Beyond the Inflection Point
Volatility across the banking sector will likely mark an inflection point in policymakers’ current tightening cycle. We lay out five specific themes to help fixed income investors navigate the shifting markets.
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A Solid Case for IG Credit, But Caution is Required
Against a backdrop of elevated uncertainty, IG corporate credit—with healthy corporate balance sheets and a relatively attractive total return potential—looks well-positioned.
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Potential Opportunities in the US Banking Sector
Despite the failure of a handful of banks in the US and one in Europe, our view is that 2023 will not present a financial crisis near the magnitude of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. The three failed US banks, Silvergate, Silicon Valley and Signature, had unique business models that proved to be meaningful weaknesses. They raised concerns about firms with close financial ties to small banks, particularly speculative technology and related stocks, such as cryptocurrencies, that unwound when they were caught in a bubble.
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*The resilience and diversity of infrastructure debt*
For investors eyeing stable long-term income from a broad and diverse asset class, European infrastructure debt can be a resilient solution. It has been as robust in times of crisis – witness its performance during the pandemic – as it has been across economic cycles. What is its secret? Infrastructure provides services that are in demand whatever the economic climate.
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Global Macro Outlook - Second Quarter 2023
Besides inflation and tight monetary policy, a banking crisis has added to investor anxieties. The bank turmoil won’t likely be a drag to global financial markets. But it does argue for caution when combined with our broader expectations of a sustained period of below-trend growth.
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As Credit Goes, So Goes the Economy
Credit is the lifeblood of the economy, and the credit system just had a heart murmur.
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State of the Market: A Turn for the Better, but Struggles Persist
In this piece from Private Debt Investor, Stuart Mathieson, Head of Investments in Barings’ Capital Solutions group, discusses the growing opportunity set for lenders who can provide financing solutions for companies facing market stress and volatility.
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High Yield: Charting a Steady Course Through Roiling Seas
Banking stresses added volatility to first-quarter markets already coping with rising rates and recession fears. Still, with corporate fundamentals sound, high yield investors and issuers are more cautious than fearful.
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A tale of two markets: Contrasting the fortunes of European and US High Yield
The European High Yield (HY) market has outperformed the US market over the last five, 10 and 20 years. We compare the trends in charts and ask: Will this continue and what are the main similarities and differences between the US and European markets?
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Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - April 2023
”The tightening in credit conditions should reduce core inflationary pressures, partly replacing the need for monetary policy action.”
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Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession
Recent stress in parts of the banking sector will raise funding costs and reduce lending to many sectors. Now we expect the US economy to shrink by - 1.1% in 2023, driven by a contraction in domestic demand. Eurozone growth should stagnate amid inflation remaining high.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy - April 2023
Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession.
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Solving for the Climate Transition in High Yield
A holistic approach to climate considerations can offer an opportunity to invest in a diversified portfolio of high yield issuers that are committed to reducing or maintaining a low carbon footprint, while also targeting high current income and capital appreciation.
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Fixed-Income Outlook: Getting a Grip in Slippery Markets
Market twists and turns challenged fixed-income investors in the first quarter, as markets responded to swings in economic and inflation data and central banks struggled to control the wheel. Then, in March, the collapse of two large commercial banks triggered a significant repricing of risk and sent markets into a skid. Below are our key takeaways, as well as strategies for gaining traction in uncertain conditions.
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Private Credit: An All-Weather Asset Class
As private-credit markets continue to expand in size, choice and sophistication, we believe they should play an important role in well-diversified investment portfolios.
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Emerging markets debt: Clouds of political uncertainty set to lift
After a positive start to 2023, emerging market debt investors should keep an eye on four key elections this year, which may create further opportunities in the asset class.
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Banking woes take centre stage
We reflect on a tumultuous week in the banking sector as markets take stock of UBS’s bailout of Credit Suisse. Amid echoes of the past, our experts ask: is there more to come?
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Markets take a breath after a week of turmoil
Markets stepped back from the brink this week, following intense stress engulfing Credit Suisse and European banks.