All Currency articles
-
White papersWhat would it take to see a sustained weakness in the dollar?
About a month after “Liberation Day,” the US dollar has shown signs of stabilisation, though it continues to soften against most developed and emerging markets currencies.
-
White papersWhat to expect for the US Treasury market?
Until very recently, the US dollar (and US capital markets) seemed to reign supreme. The dollar has increasingly dominated as the currency of global transactions. Swift payments denominated in dollars rose from just over 30% of the total in early 2010 to an all-time high of 50.2% in January 2025.
-
White papersDollar in the Doldrums
Why there has been no bounce-back by the greenback, and what that implies for asset allocation.
-
White papersThe greenback is singing the blues
But the US dollar’s recent decline isn’t a sign it will relinquish its status as the reserve currency.
-
White papersQuick take on Trump’s tariff pause
President Trump has announced a 90-day truce with most of the international community, reducing tariffs to the baseline rate of 10% for the European Union (EU), Asia (excluding China) and South Africa, among other countries. This is a positive development. Most other major economies, including Latin America, Canada, the UK, and Australia, were already subject to baseline rate tariffs or lower.
-
White papersLocal-Currency Frontier Bonds: EMD’s New Horizon
High yields, surprisingly low volatility and strong diversification benefits are attracting investor interest.
-
PodcastOuterblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Narratives of love and fear
After an eventful month trying to keep up with the breaking news, not least the debut of new AI model Deepseek, concerns over Trump’s tariff proposals, coupled with renewed European security concerns, Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, sit down to reflect on what all these events mean for the markets.
-
White papersShared BRICS money: basket currency or basket case?
There has been speculation that a desire to avoid using the US dollar might encourage the BRICS nations to adopt a gold-backed currency. But there are several questions to ask about such a proposal.
-
White papersLocal Currency Bonds: The Next Frontier
Frontier markets are well represented in investors’ allocation to USD markets but not so much in local currencies. This may be changing given growing interest in its strong performance and benchmark providers creating more transparency.
-
White papersJapanese Equities in 2025: Goldilocks Would Approve
Japanese Equities: Are the “Lost Decades” Finally in the Rear View?
-
White papersEmerging market debt outlook for 2025: Ready for Trump 2.0?
Looking ahead to 2025, the macro environment, in theory, sets the stage for a friendly backdrop in EM, especially given continued disinflation, which should allow most major central banks to ease rates throughout the year. However, the incoming US administration poses several risks to EMs.
-
White papersFX reserves and the 10-10-10 proposition
Over the next 10 years the US dollar will likely surrender another 10% share of global foreign exchange reserves – but there will be no single beneficiary, with 10 different currencies all growing their allocations
-
White papersWill the equities rally continue in 2025?
Our Equities Outlook 2025 outlines why the Republican sweep in the US election could have wide-reaching implications for stock markets, currencies, commodities and foreign countries.
-
White papersThe Dollar and the Euro: On a Path to Parity?
Why we think it could take longer than expected, with better entry points still to come.
-
White papersImpact of US elections on emerging market currencies
The results of the US presidential elections in November are set to have wide-ranging implications on the US dollar and emerging market (EM) exchange rates. In this piece, we examine what the outcome of the election could mean for EM currencies, through the impact on tariffs, sanctions, US fiscal policy, unorthodox economic policies and immigration.
-
White papersThe Fifth Stage of Pocketbook Grief
Economic data has been resilient, but everyone seems unhappy—will the consumer cheer up in time to avoid triggering a recession?
-
White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - September 2024
Topic of the Month - The JPY carry trade: what’s next?
-
White papersThe JPY carry trade: what’s next?
A series of weak US data in July questioned the market narrative of a soft landing and brought back fears of recession. This was the main trigger, although a hawkish surprise from the BoJ undoubtedly added fuel to what turned out to be an unusually sharp unwinding of carry trades funded in JPY. The amount of exposure of these carry trades was at an all-time high due to the low level of overall market volatility and the volatility of the JPY itself. So is it over?
-
White papersTime for the Yen to Blossom?
Strong forces still weigh on Japan’s currency, but its long, cold winter may be coming to an end.
-
White papersHard and local currency bonds provide different routes to returns
Emerging market (EM) bonds are increasingly becoming a strategic holding for many investors but a key consideration in this is the different attributes of hard- and local currency-denominated bonds — the two broad sets of investments available in the asset class — and understanding the benefits each can bring to a portfolio.
