All Currency articles
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White papersGold Mid-year Outlook 2023: Between a soft and a hard place
Developed market central banks are nearing the end of their tightening cycles. For now, market consensus points to a mild contraction in the US in late 2023 and slow growth in developed markets. But given the historical lag between monetary policy and economic performance, investors are wary that a hard landing may be still to come.
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VideoThe dollar effect on emerging market corporates
Watch to find out what effect the dollar has on emerging market corporates
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White papersHow strong dollar dynamics impacts emerging markets
Years of strong dollar dynamics have had a far reaching consequences for emerging economies, much of it played out in the currency markets.
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VideoDollar Cycle - The Impact on Emerging Market Bonds
Watch to discover what the dollar cycle impact will be on EM bonds
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VideoEmerging Market Debt: After the Storm
Lyubka Dushanova, Portfolio Strategist, EMD, outlines why investors should reassess prospects for EMD right now. Along with a quick look back at 2022, Lyubka flags where opportunities lie in the asset class and explains why we believe an indexed approach makes sense.
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White papersRevisiting EMD: Brighter Days Ahead?
Although 2022 was volatile for EMD, a brighter outlook is developing against the backdrop of China’s reopening, peaking inflation and interest rates, and signs that US dollar strength could fade. Given current valuations, EMD merits renewed consideration by investors.
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White papersLocal-currency emerging market debt: A distinctive asset class
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income suggests that investing in local-currency and hard-currency emerging market debt has many similarities. In this paper they consider those factors and the opportunities available.
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White papersAre Cheap Burgers in Emerging Markets a Good Sign for Investors?
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
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White papersCurrency hedging policy for institutions
“Investors should focus on currencies as a potential source of return and risk diversification for a portfolio.”
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White papersChina’s Reopening Bodes Well for Asian Fixed-Income Markets
Markets have responded warmly to China’s easing of its zero-COVID policy, although it’s not clear yet how quickly or smoothly the country’s economy will recover. While some bumps in the road are likely, we expect China’s reopening could lead to further gains in Asian credit and currencies in 2023.
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White papersEMs with stronger fundamentals should see inflows
Global ownership of EM bonds stands at its lowest point in close to a decade
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White papersEmerging markets debt: Valuations appear attractive despite uncertain macro backdrop
Emerging markets (EM) hard and local currency denominated sovereign bonds rose in the fourth quarter of 2022, as a softer-than-expected inflation print in the US and the potential end to China’s zero-COVID policy lured yield seeking investors.
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White papersA New Dollar Smile: Where Next for the U.S. Dollar?
Following decade-long appreciation, the TRP USD index has reached historically high levels, raising questions as to whether the U.S. dollar may be vulnerable to a possible rapid reversal. In this article, we explore the key drivers of forward (or subsequent) U.S. dollar returns, focusing specifically on those effects within extreme dollar return environments.
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White papersWhy the outlook for bonds is improving
Bonds are poised to deliver better risk-adjusted returns than equities over the next 12 months.
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White papers2023 emerging market equity outlook: Several catalysts point to a potential rebound
In our analysis, emerging market (EM) equities may have an asymmetric return profile in 2023 given several catalysts, including peaking inflation, the potential for a weaker US dollar, recession risks in the United States and EU, and a shift in policies in China from zero-COVID toward growth. Get Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity 2023 outlook.
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White papersFTX fallout and the future of digital assets
The FTX fallout is creating a reckoning in digital assets and cryptocurrencies. However, there are three takeaways from this event that point toward continued progress for the industry, according to Franklin Templeton Head of Digital Assets and Industry Advisory Services Sandy Kaul.
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White papersCryptonite
The FTX collapse is a blow to the idea of finance industry disruption and a potential source of volatility, but we think systemic contagion into broader financial markets is unlikely.
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White papers2023 global macro outlook: Looking toward a non-dollar asset recovery
Templeton Global Macro: The greatest areas of value in sovereign bond markets may be found in non-dollar assets, especially in Asia and specific local-currency emerging markets.
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White papersEMD outlook for 2023: local currency yields offer protection in volatile conditions
Global factors weighing on emerging market debt (EMD) in 2022 look likely to continue in 2023, with three main driving forces within this: tighter financial conditions led by the US, a stronger US dollar and weak global growth.
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White papersHas the euro reached lows versus the dollar?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we examine the factors behind the decline of the euro versus the US dollar this year and assess whether the single currency has further to fall.
