All Currency articles – Page 2
-
VideoDollar Cycle - The Impact on Emerging Market Bonds
Watch to discover what the dollar cycle impact will be on EM bonds
-
White papersAre Cheap Burgers in Emerging Markets a Good Sign for Investors?
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
-
White papersCurrency hedging policy for institutions
“Investors should focus on currencies as a potential source of return and risk diversification for a portfolio.”
-
White papersChina’s Reopening Bodes Well for Asian Fixed-Income Markets
Markets have responded warmly to China’s easing of its zero-COVID policy, although it’s not clear yet how quickly or smoothly the country’s economy will recover. While some bumps in the road are likely, we expect China’s reopening could lead to further gains in Asian credit and currencies in 2023.
-
White papersEMs with stronger fundamentals should see inflows
Global ownership of EM bonds stands at its lowest point in close to a decade
-
White papersEmerging markets debt: Valuations appear attractive despite uncertain macro backdrop
Emerging markets (EM) hard and local currency denominated sovereign bonds rose in the fourth quarter of 2022, as a softer-than-expected inflation print in the US and the potential end to China’s zero-COVID policy lured yield seeking investors.
-
White papersWhy the outlook for bonds is improving
Bonds are poised to deliver better risk-adjusted returns than equities over the next 12 months.
-
White papersCryptonite
The FTX collapse is a blow to the idea of finance industry disruption and a potential source of volatility, but we think systemic contagion into broader financial markets is unlikely.
-
White papersEMD outlook for 2023: local currency yields offer protection in volatile conditions
Global factors weighing on emerging market debt (EMD) in 2022 look likely to continue in 2023, with three main driving forces within this: tighter financial conditions led by the US, a stronger US dollar and weak global growth.
-
White papersHas the euro reached lows versus the dollar?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we examine the factors behind the decline of the euro versus the US dollar this year and assess whether the single currency has further to fall.
-
White papersGlobal foreign exchange regime faces winds of change
Dollar strength is causing strains, even in developed economies like Japan and Britain. A short-term fix could be a Plaza-style accord to weaken the dollar. Reverse FX wars, with a race to strengthen currencies, are another possibility. Longer-term, momentum may grow for a multi-polar currency regime that pits China ...
-
White papersUK market turmoil points towards further volatility in global currencies
Investors’ focus is shifting from the poor growth/inflation mix to the extremely negative external balance picture in the UK. Last Friday (23/09), the government announced an additional 0.5% of GDP in unfunded tax cuts and the reaction of UK assets recalled actions we used to see only in emerging markets.
-
White papersYou Will Remember The 21st Day of September
Data and expectations continue to drive markets, which have priced in a 75bp hike from the FOMC, though some foresee more; expect 50bps from the BoE given concerns about inflation and energy prices. In China, mounting worries about growth and weak trade are elevating concerns.
-
White papersMoney to burn?
Reducing methane emissions this decade is probably the single most important action the world can take to reduce the rate of global heating. Diana Glassman explains how we are engaging with oil and gas producers and pipeline operators to tackle the problem.
-
BlogThe Extending Chain Reaction of Dollar Dominance
Strength in the U.S. dollar historically leads to anticipation about its effects on commodity prices and the prospects for the emerging markets. However, as monetary policy rates diverge and Europe’s energy crisis intensifies, the dollar’s significant appreciation against the Japanese yen and the euro points to an extending chain reaction.
-
White papersUK Leadership Change: Economic and market implications
After the resignation of Boris Johnson as prime minister, what is your outlook regarding British political development?
-
White papersRenminbi’s rise will not challenge dollar dominance
A sharp economic slowdown seems to be looming in both Europe and the US, which would make bond markets attractive again, especially in the US. Conversely, the Chinese economy is expected to reaccelerate. International monetary system set to become multipolar as geopolitical factors are likely to prevail.
-
White papersThe ECB’s Trilemma
Are we seeing the start of another eurozone crisis, or can the ECB fashion an effective tool to manage volatile southern European bond spreads?
-
White papersStock-Bond Correlation: A Global Perspective
The correlation between stock and bond returns has been reliably and persistently negative for the last two decades across Developed Markets (DM) – matching the US experience. During this regime, stocks and bonds have hedged one another, dampening overall portfolio risk for a given level of equity allocation.
-
White papersThe ECB Joins the Growing Circle of Hawks
The ECB officially joined the hawkish camp, announcing a more aggressive path of rate hikes, which led markets to reprice the euro curve higher. Meanwhile, despite a move higher in initial claims, a strong U.S. jobs report will keep the FOMC on its hawkish rate-hiking path.
