All Currency articles – Page 2
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White papersHas the euro reached lows versus the dollar?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we examine the factors behind the decline of the euro versus the US dollar this year and assess whether the single currency has further to fall.
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White papersGlobal foreign exchange regime faces winds of change
Dollar strength is causing strains, even in developed economies like Japan and Britain. A short-term fix could be a Plaza-style accord to weaken the dollar. Reverse FX wars, with a race to strengthen currencies, are another possibility. Longer-term, momentum may grow for a multi-polar currency regime that pits China ...
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White papersUK market turmoil points towards further volatility in global currencies
Investors’ focus is shifting from the poor growth/inflation mix to the extremely negative external balance picture in the UK. Last Friday (23/09), the government announced an additional 0.5% of GDP in unfunded tax cuts and the reaction of UK assets recalled actions we used to see only in emerging markets.
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White papersYou Will Remember The 21st Day of September
Data and expectations continue to drive markets, which have priced in a 75bp hike from the FOMC, though some foresee more; expect 50bps from the BoE given concerns about inflation and energy prices. In China, mounting worries about growth and weak trade are elevating concerns.
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White papersMoney to burn?
Reducing methane emissions this decade is probably the single most important action the world can take to reduce the rate of global heating. Diana Glassman explains how we are engaging with oil and gas producers and pipeline operators to tackle the problem.
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White papersNearing a turning point in emerging markets
Brandywine Global: After a difficult start to the year, valuations for select local currency emerging market bonds now appear very attractive to us. Some signals suggest a turning point may be near.
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White papersHigher inflation, recession more likely
In our mid-year Macro Perspectives, our economists discuss whether a stagflation (inflation plus slowing growth) scenario can be avoided, and where investors might find opportunity—or at least temporary shelter.
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BlogThe Extending Chain Reaction of Dollar Dominance
Strength in the U.S. dollar historically leads to anticipation about its effects on commodity prices and the prospects for the emerging markets. However, as monetary policy rates diverge and Europe’s energy crisis intensifies, the dollar’s significant appreciation against the Japanese yen and the euro points to an extending chain reaction.
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White papersUK Leadership Change: Economic and market implications
After the resignation of Boris Johnson as prime minister, what is your outlook regarding British political development?
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White papersRenminbi’s rise will not challenge dollar dominance
A sharp economic slowdown seems to be looming in both Europe and the US, which would make bond markets attractive again, especially in the US. Conversely, the Chinese economy is expected to reaccelerate. International monetary system set to become multipolar as geopolitical factors are likely to prevail.
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White papersThe ECB’s Trilemma
Are we seeing the start of another eurozone crisis, or can the ECB fashion an effective tool to manage volatile southern European bond spreads?
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White papersStock-Bond Correlation: A Global Perspective
The correlation between stock and bond returns has been reliably and persistently negative for the last two decades across Developed Markets (DM) – matching the US experience. During this regime, stocks and bonds have hedged one another, dampening overall portfolio risk for a given level of equity allocation.
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White papersThe ECB Joins the Growing Circle of Hawks
The ECB officially joined the hawkish camp, announcing a more aggressive path of rate hikes, which led markets to reprice the euro curve higher. Meanwhile, despite a move higher in initial claims, a strong U.S. jobs report will keep the FOMC on its hawkish rate-hiking path.
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White papersJPY: Structurally weak, cyclically blessed
Structural headwinds are strong for the yen, setting a fundamental background for the currency to stay weak. Yet a recessionary environment is a cyclical blessing – peaking growth and rates prove that the JPY is among the cleanest diversifiers – and officials may have lost their appetite for currency devaluation.
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PodcastMythbusting Crypto Investing
Cryptocurrency, or crypto, the so-called “wild west” of Wall Street, has been raising eyebrows for quite some time now. Since 2013, there have been over 12,000 different types of coins generated, leaving many wondering what is actually reliable in this market.
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White papersA fireside chat about the renminbi – How far will it fall?
In recent weeks, the renminbi has depreciated significantly against the US dollar. Chi Lo, our senior market strategist in Hong Kong, explains what is happening and give his outlook for the Chinese currency.
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White papersA fireside chat about the Hong Kong dollar as it revisits 7.85
For the first time since 2019, the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has fallen to the lower end of the Convertibility-Undertaking threshold, under which the Hong Kong Monetary Authority limits the currency’s trading range against the US dollar. Chi Lo, our senior market strategist in Hong Kong, explains what is happening and discusses the mechanism in place to sustain the Hong Kong dollar peg.
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White papersThe Great Wave of Yen Weakness
Templeton Global Equity Group highlight that the weaker Japanese Yen is thought of as positive for Japanese businesses with a high degree of exports, but it may not necessarily be as beneficial as many think.
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White papersThe Dollar U-Turn
The USD has been on quite an impressive journey over the last couple of years, with clear but different market drivers characterising its moves. Since last summer however, the path has been relentlessly higher, finally breaching the Covid highs in recent weeks.
