Our Annual Outlook provides our key views and investment implications for the coming year
- The new world order is brewing a cold war that marks a regime change likely to see a less friendly growth/inflation mix and a more volatile economic and financial environment. Climate change (hot) will also exacerbate migration issues and competition for natural resources.
- Economic growth is set to cool off further, while inflation is still too hot. We warn against inferring market direction from previous cycles and positioning too early for a policy pivot. Policy is more severely constrained in this cycle.
- Our core scenario sees a mild EA recession, and an even milder US one. Risks are skewed to the downside: such brutal tightening of monetary policy and financial conditions rarely leaves the economy and markets unscathed.
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