Core Matters: Riding the AI waves through thematic baskets

Our Core Matters series provides thematic research on macro, investment, and insurance topics

  • Artificial intelligence has evolved from a technology theme into a broad investment cycle spanning data centres, semiconductors, software, cloud and power networks.
  • The opportunity extends well beyond frontier AI model developers, encompassing the entire value chain from AI deployment to adoption.
  • AI demand remains on a strong growth trajectory, supported by rising enterprise implementation and accelerating token consumption.
  • However, the AI investment cycle faces structural risks that could affect the pace and profitability of deployment: financing and monetisation, competition, regulation, and infrastructure and environmental constraints.
  • AI-related valuation concerns are increasingly concentrated in the five hyperscalers, where rising capex is weighing on free cash flow; yet broader US technology valuations already discount a lot of this risk and continue to be supported by solid earnings momentum and resilient free-cash-flow origination in 2026-2028.

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Supporting documents

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