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Fixed income outlook: resilient US provides an anchor
The enduring resilience of the US economy will be a key driver of financial markets in 2025 and beyond. Having avoided recession, the US is returning to mid-cycle, according to economic data, while inflation has continued to ease back towards the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, enabling the central bank to begin cutting rates. We believe the Fed views monetary policy as restrictive and will likely continue lowering rates, albeit at a slower pace than previously expected.
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What does Trump 2.0 mean for emerging markets?
The shift on domestic and foreign policy under the incoming US administration presents a wide range of potential outcomes for EM.
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Can Black Friday ever be green?
With Black Friday, the retail event marking the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, and other deep discount tactics rising in popularity, Premier Miton’s Fiona Manning considers whether e-commerce could ever turn green.
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Is the case building for Contingent Convertibles?
Lloyd Harris, Head of Fixed Income at Premier Miton, argues that the case for Contingent Convertibles has never been stronger.
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Engagement has a crucial role to play in the green transition
The transition to net zero cannot be achieved without directly tackling carbon-intensive industries. Investor engagement can provide a vital platform to facilitate change among high emitters.
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Addressing misconceptions with net-zero investing
The journey towards achieving carbon neutrality, or net zero, by 2050 is not only essential for our planet but also increasingly demanded by investors. Motivations for those seeking to align their portfolios with net-zero often vary — spanning financial, societal, and ethical domains — yet many investors hold a common set of misconceptions related to implementation.
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Reframing the climate question
How should an investor balance a focus on reducing their climate impact with a desire for financial returns? And how does a company management team accommodate what can often be seen as competing demands?
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Ready for take-off…? Exploring opportunities in the travel sector
Manager of the Premier Miton UK Value Opportunities Fund and Premier Miton UK Focus Fund, Matt Tillett, and assistant fund manager. Mike Shrives, look at where they are finding value opportunities in the travel sector.
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US election positioning – we could get fireworks!
Everyone’s favourite question at the moment, how do you position into the US election? Here’s what we think for fixed income.
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Global Investment Views - October 2024
Capital markets whipsawed between a weakening US labour market and hopes that the Fed would successfully steer the economy towards a soft landing. Markets are optimistically interpreting the latest policy action, which could potentially boost consumption and investment. The other narrative is that the Fed would not have implemented a big cut without having apprehensions on the economic front.
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Economics line up for extended SMID catch-up
Long outperformed by large-cap stocks, small and mid-caps (SMID) have recently shown signs of a trend reversal, which could enable them to make up lost ground. Current market conditions present a turning point for investors to look at a segment where high-conviction active managers have historically delivered alpha.
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Exploring the full spectrum of fixed income strategies
Investors have traditionally thought of there being two primary investment styles, namely Active and Passive (or Indexing). But this binary view oversimplifies the new reality. Instead, it is better to think of investment styles as sitting along a continuum, where they become progressively more “active,” from index replication to unconstrained.
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Index investing as an active decision: implications for equity investors
Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.
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Out of sight, out of EM?
A world on fire and a $5.5 trillion need for capital. Will Scholes, co-fund manager of the Premier Miton Emerging Markets Sustainable Fund, puts a long-term lens on emerging markets (EM) investing.
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The technology sector – An update after the summer volatility
Volatility may be part and parcel of equity markets, but this summer’s swings stand out. The causes cited for the sell-off included concerns over the outlook for the US economy and an unwinding of yen carry trades. Investors also worried about the risk of the vast sums being invested in artificial intelligence (AI) ultimately not generating sufficient returns. Daniel Morris investigates the AI angle.*
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Want to Optimize Your Fixed Income Strategy?
The debate between active and index investing has evolved. Now, the key question is whether active, index or systematic investing is more effective for specific fixed-income sectors and the asset class as a whole. Our latest paper, The Role of Active, Index and Systematic Investing in Fixed Income Portfolios.
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Investing in megatrends with thematic and exchange-traded funds (Part 1)
New research from BNP Paribas Asset Management’s Quantitative Research Group delves into thematic investing strategies. These investments target the long-term megatrends that are transforming economies, society and business models. This is the first of two extracts. It answers five questions to help investors understand the appeal and extent of, and risks involved in, megatrend investing.
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Are bonds back for H2?
We see opportunities across the market but believe having clear geographic distinctions will prove a key performance driver.
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A time and place for small cap equities
After handily outperforming both large caps and the broader U.S. equity market for the one-year period following the COVID recession in the spring of 2020, small cap stocks have since lagged, despite posting healthy double-digit gains in two of the past three calendar years. This performance gap reflects in part the narrow but persistent market leadership of a few high-flying mega cap technology companies supported by artificial intelligence (AI) tailwinds.
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Optimizing a Global Credit Portfolio
By using a “building block” approach, investors may be able to improve diversification, boost risk-adjusted returns and reduce implementation costs. Our white paper outlines the potential benefits of a modular approach to optimize your fixed income portfolio.