Geopolitical risks have returned to investors’ radar screens with President Putin’s escalation of the war in Ukraine. At the same time, inflation remains in the spotlight: the latest US reading was concerning, causing yields to rise while equity markets tumbled.
Looking ahead, we confirm the outlook of slowing US inflation (headline peak looks to be behind us), but well above the Fed’s targets in the near term and we think central banks, including the Fed and the ECB, will remain hawkish. Politics is also under the spotlight with US mid-term elections, a new government in Italy, and elections in Brazil.
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