Russia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating

The second week of conflict in the Ukraine was marked by additional market volatility. Equities are down across the board. The demand for safe-haven assets temporarily pushed the 10-year Treasury down to 1.7% before it retraced to 1.9% amid rising inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, gold has remained well supported, briefly moving above $2000/ounce.

Regarding the whole market, uncertainty remains very pronounced, with commodities facing particularly acute pressures. The joint US/UK embargo on Russian oil has pushed the price to $130/bbl high. European gas is up +200% YTD.

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