Since the start of the year, bond yields have surged in the economies of the G10 as markets anticipate a sharp acceleration in inflation and economic activity. This rebound is likely to be particularly strong in the US given its enormous fiscal stimulus plan. In the medium term, opinion is divided concerning the post-Covid crisis macroeconomic trajectory and a possible change in the inflation regime in the US.
During the last quarter, US 10-year yields reached the milestone rate of 1.6%, dragging in their wake German 10-year rates, which rose by 22bp to -0.35%. These figures reflect greater investor confidence in the growth outlook for the US economy.
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