Investors are facing an unsettled environment. For 2019 we think it will be key to look at three areas:
1. From economic deceleration to where?
2. Fed pausing or continuing rate rises?
3. EMs: perfect storm or a recovery story?
All in all we believe that global risk is still asymmetric as the process of repricing growth expectations and the related adjustments of risk premia unfolds, leading to a restoration of value across the board. Still, this restoration of value and the progressive positive alignment of planets (milder path on US rates, peak in the dollar, slower US growth) bodes well for progressive exposure to EMs.
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