All White papers articles – Page 249
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White papersThe embarrassing legacy of financial capitalism: implications for investors
In the ongoing regime shift, investors have to deal with significant legacies stemming from the previous regime (the one initiated under former Fed Chair Paul Volcker), namely two forms of inflation: asset price inflation over the course of three decades and more recently inflation in the price of goods and services.
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White papersShifts & Narratives #20 - Stagflation and its roots in capital misallocation
In the ongoing regime shift, investors have to deal with significant legacies stemming from the previous ‘Volckerian’ regime, namely two forms of inflation: asset price inflation over the course of three decades and, more recently, inflation in the price of goods and services.
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White papersResponsible Lending: The Myth of the Perfect Investment
If building a sustainable bond portfolio sounds tidy and straightforward, it isn’t. The auto industry illustrates the difficulty of finding a perfectly sustainable private sector investment.
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White papersStickiness and science parks
This research article focuses on the stickiness of companies (their tendency to stay, or leave) on Dutch science parks, factors which influence this behaviour and possible solutions aimed at increasing the duration of stay of tenants.
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White papersThe impact of the Ukraine crisis on climate change
There are no doubt multiple factors that led to Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine. One was likely to have been a calculation that European dependence on Russian fossil fuels – particularly gas – would limit the severity of any resulting sanctions on Russia from the West.
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White papersThe Two-Way Market Persists
In a webinar a few weeks back, my colleagues, Joe Amato and Erik Knutzen, and I sought to size up the market environment of ongoing volatility and selloffs, pressure from the Federal Reserve, and fears about inflation and growth.
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White papersOnly innovation in fiscal and monetary rules will make the Eurozone viable
As crises unfold, structural and governance issues tend to become more and more important. And the objectives of economic policy are increasingly ambitious, both on the fiscal and monetary fronts. The governments and the ECB are in an impossible situation.
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White papersA look under the surface of the first quarter earnings season
The excellent results of the first quarter also conceal weaknesses. Excluding energy, they remain positive but much less flattering, and companies are wondering about the future. Revisions are now expected to be on the downside, which does not rule out counter-trend rallies. Markets’ behaviour could be tricky. Remain cautious.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - June 2022
We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month but amend the narrative to take into account the evolving geopolitical situation (see Ukraine crisis tree).The new wave of Covid-19 in China and stagnation in the Euro-area are adding growth uncertainty over the short-term.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - June 2022
United States: After the contraction in Q1 (resulting from an outsized detraction from net exports and a payback from the surge in inventories in Q4, not from weak demand) we expect sequential growth to pick up from Q2 and stabilise around moderate rates of growth consistent with reaching 1.6% in Q4/Q4 22 and 1.5% in Q4/Q4 23.
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White papersJPY: Structurally weak, cyclically blessed
Structural headwinds are strong for the yen, setting a fundamental background for the currency to stay weak. Yet a recessionary environment is a cyclical blessing – peaking growth and rates prove that the JPY is among the cleanest diversifiers – and officials may have lost their appetite for currency devaluation.
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White papersDisruptive technology – Maintaining course in volatile markets
The high-tech sector has seen a dramatic correction and high market volatility in recent months. We believe it is now appropriate to review the outlook for disruptive tech thematic investing. We are confident in the long-term outlook for this secular growth theme as we see many opportunities to invest in companies that are leading – and benefiting from – digital transformation.
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White papersSwiss real estate in an inflationary environment
After decades of continuous low inflation levels, real estate investors are experiencing an environment of elevated consumer price growth all around the world. In this publication, we underline our inflation and interest rate expectations and discuss the potential implications of this complex macroeconomic environment for the performance of Swiss real estate investments.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - June 2022
The repricing of a more aggressive Fed stance has been brutal as the 10Y UST yield temporarily reached the 3% threshold, falling close to 2.75% recently on economic growth concerns. We think investors should move towards neutrality on duration in the US and Europe, whereas in credit, they should focus on quality and stay cautious on higher-risk segments in Europe.
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White papersThe Path From the Peak
With inflation still above-trend, prices rising for necessities, central banks tightening policy, and fallout from China’s zero-COVID policy, we will watch for a sharp slowdown in growth over the 12–18 month outlook.
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White papersThe myth of the fiscal free lunch: beware of the trap. An investor’s viewpoint
The idea that there is a comfortable degree of budgetary room for more active fiscal policy goes hand-in-hand with the assumption that a sustained bond correction (higher safe real interest rate) is not only unjustified based on fundamentals, but is also impossible. This comes as no surprise. On average throughout modern history, safe real interest rates have been lower than the GDP growth rate, making it easier to finance public deficits.
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White papersShifts & Narratives #19 - The fiscal illusion: no free lunch for investors
The conversation regarding whether there is room for more aggressive fiscal policy is a hot political topic today. In the US, the debate is likely to become even more inflamed as we approach the midterm elections. In fact, these are at risk of becoming an evaluation of President Biden’s policies in light of the excessive fiscal spending carried out in response to the Covid pandemic (and its subsequent impact on the economy).
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White papersShifts & Narratives #18 - The power of narratives for investors
A narrative is a popular story that arises from the public consciousness of market events. The most viral and intense of these may dominate public attention. Narratives are rooted in popular beliefs and are not necessarily from economists’ minds.
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White papersSmoothing Long-Term ESG Transition
At Neuberger Berman, we believe that attention to material environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors will be crucial to managing investment portfolios over time. The Non-Investment Grade team closely integrates ESG factors into fundamental credit research, engaging rigorously with issuers to ensure that associated risks and opportunities are taken into account in business strategy and the allocation of capital.
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White papersHow will Europe secure the metals needed for its energy transition?
Achieving decarbonisation involves scaling up low-carbon technologies. Safeguarding the steady supply of a number of key metals that these sustainable technologies rely on means using them more efficiently and judiciously, as Julien Bouyssou explains.
