Outlooks – Page 91
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Home and leisure in a pandemic: Girls (and boys) still want to have fun
From cinemas to cruises, the consumer-driven home and leisure sector was hit hard by lockdown restrictions. With economies reopening in a disjointed manner, some sub-sectors have rebounded quickly while others continue to struggle. Here, we look at how the pandemic is reshaping the industry and the implications for investors.
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The compelling case for alternatives
With only modest returns – at best – forecast for global stocks and bonds, investors may look to raise their allocations to alternatives. However, here too, the options are limited.
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Top 10 with… Interview with Eric Byrne on Multi-Managers Real Estate
The multi-manager real estate industry has boomed in recent years with many investors looking for new structures to gain and increase their exposure to real estate. Eric Byrne explains how the Multi-Managers Real Estate (MMRE) business navigates market changes to provide superior access to investments with attractive fee savings to clients.
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Alternatives: opportunities abound
With only modest returns – at best – forecast for global stocks and bonds, investors may look to raise their allocations to alternatives. However, here too, the options are limited.
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Why traditional balanced portfolios will not deliver attractive returns
The Covid-19 crisis turned the world on its head, creating major challenges for investors.
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How Covid-19 will reshape the world and investments
Every global shock leaves a legacy. The hyperinflation and labour unrest of the late 1970s and early 1980s, for instance, gave birth to Reaganomics and Thatcherism while the 2008 credit crisis ushered in an era of ultra-low interest rates that persists to this day.
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How might monetary policy evolve in a post-pandemic world?
Are central banks running out of ammunition to combat the next recession? In a word: no. In two words: no, but…
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Asset class return forecasts: the winners of the next five years
It gives me great pleasure to introduce our 8th Secular Outlook, which explores the trends we believe will have the greatest impact on financial markets over the next five years. Readers won’t be surprised to learn that this edition has been the most difficult of the eight to produce.
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A Civil Vice Presidential Debate Has Little Impact On The Race
Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris met yesterday in their one and only Vice Presidential debate in Salt Lake City. This was the second most important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and early indications on the morning after the debate is that it did not change the trajectory of the race that has moved decisively in favor of former Vice President Biden.
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Investment View - The New Age of Financial Repression
Given the surge in government and corporate debt, policy will inevitably focus on making this load sustainable: financial repression, spearheaded by central banks, is set to reach a whole new level.
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Uneven Climb Through Recovery
Our CIOs’ Global Investment Outlook offers perspective on the investment landscape and the US elections.
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The case for EM single country allocation post-pandemic
As businesses adjust to the new “normal,” we believe the case for international markets is, once again, strong.
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Small Emerging Market Companies Driving Big Innovations
Amid seismic disruptions from COVID-19, global equity markets remain enamored with technology giants.
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Evaluating the Options
Volatility is not a word that the Options market is a stranger to, but after a period of relative calm, Options market volatility has returned for the foreseeable future. The first question that comes to mind is–are the opportunities still there amid these volatile times? And if so, are emerging Options investors in a good position to go out and find them?
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Politics, economics and a pandemic: Equity markets under pressure
September saw profit-taking on equities amid investor concerns over COVID-19 as well as economic and political uncertainties. After rallying for five months, global equities fell. Further fiscal support measures are taking shape, but only slowly, leaving central banks to lobby for more haste.
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President Trump’s positive COVID-19 test shakes up election, markets
President Trump announced in a tweet shortly before 1:00 a.m. on Friday October 2nd that he and the First Lady of the United States (FLOTUS) tested positive for COVID-19. We look at the potential repercussions from this dramatic news in this Q&A.
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You asked, we answer
Our Global Views team attempts to answer some of the questions often asked by our clients.
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Fixed income dynamics in the current monetary and fiscal landscape
The global economy rebounded quickly during the summer from the coronavirus pandemic. In this phase of recovery, central banks played a key role in the massive supply of credit to governments and companies. To tackle the health crisis, almost all governments implemented large-scale fiscal stimulus and support measures, including corporate loan guarantees. At the same time, major central banks increased their purchases of sovereign debt to levels never seen before, played a backstop role in the corporate debt market and provided cheap liquidity to banks (in the case of the ECB).
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Markets scenarios & risks - October 2020
This month, we do not amend the narrative of our central and alternative scenario. Economic data confirm a slower recovery path in line with our central scenario and Central Banks maintain their accommodative stace. We maintain the probability of our central scenario at 70%, 20% for the downside scenario and 10% for the upside.
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Macroeconomic picture - October 2020
Q3 economic rebound exceeds our expectations on GDP, prompting an upside revision to our August forecasts. Yet, the deceleration in late Q3 of several indicators is keeping us from extrapolating Q3 momentum into Q4. After some softening in 2020 H2, headline inflation will move along a gradual upward trend, stabilising around 2% from mid-2021 with possible temporary overshooting. As November 3 approaches, policymakers’ focus is shifting, with an increased risk that 2020 fiscal policy will become more diluted than expected, and with little visibility on the Phase 4 deal in particular.