Outlooks – Page 89
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Special Edition: The U.S. Votes: Our First Response
The U.S. has voted in the midst of arguably the most challenging environment for generations. Here’s our first take on the likely result and what it could mean for investors.
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Bonds that are not really binding
Should the €2,800 billion in sovereign bonds or the equivalent* that are on the European Central Bank’s balance sheet be treated just like any other bonds? This question, which has come up regularly over the past several months, is far from being of mere academic interest.
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HY default cycle and rating changes: how it is “different” this time
Despite a severe macro contraction, policy reaction to the covid-crisis limited most of corporates’ rating migration and HY defaults to low-rated debt. This piece outlines our expectations on both rating and default cycles to come.
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Write hard and clear about what hurts
Economists have frequently used the alphabet to characterize the profile of the recovery. But one letter does not fit all. It is the duration of the epidemic which will ultimately determine the shape of the recovery. The desynchronisation of cycles should open the door to traditional geographic diversification.
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Macroeconomic picture - November 2020
The US economy rebounded in Q3, exceeding our expectations and leading to a further upside revision of our 2020 GDP forecasts. However, given the signs of a progressive deceleration in several economic and behavioural indicators, influenced by the new rise in Covid-19 cases, we are more cautious about the speed at which the economy will enter 2021.
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Small But Mighty: Emerging Market Trends On The Cutting Edge of Change
In this issue of Trends Reinforced, the Emerging Markets Equity team reviews some truly innovative developments in emerging markets small-cap companies.
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The road less travelled: 360°, Q4 2020
What is our current view of fixed-income markets? And where do we see the best relative value? In our latest edition of 360°, Andrew ‘Jacko’ Jackson, Head of Fixed Income, and his team of specialist investors considers the areas that have the potential to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns.
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Brexit Means Brexit: But What Could that Mean for Portfolios?
As of the 31st of January of this year, Brexit went into effect per the vote cast on the 23rd of June back in 2016. With the added element of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated economic implications, how should global investors be thinking in our view as we approach 2021?
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Video: Why investors are turning to private assets amid uncertainty
In this video Georg Wunderlin and Johanna Kyrklund discuss the key challenges and benefits of using private assets, as identified by Schroders’ Institutional Investor Study.
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Market Perspectives A (temporary) Covid ‘leg down’
The rise in new Covid-19 cases and renewed lockdowns across Europe are casting long shadows over the economic recovery and markets.
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The Priority Pyramid
Tuesday’s election matters—but it is the top of a pyramid whose base is, in our view, supportive of fixed income and credit whatever the outcome.
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Fixed Income: Better Information Key to a Vaccine “V-Day”
The latest pulse of our Franklin Templeton-Gallup Economics of Recovery study reveals that better public information will be key for a vaccine to deliver a “V-Day” for the pandemic and the recovery. Dr. Sonal Desai breaks down the latest results.
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An Update On Our ESG Scores
Can the impact of COVID-19 be lessened by weak health and economic measures? Templeton Global Macro Views highlights six country case studies.
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Fixed Income Investment Outlook - Q4 2020
With a sharp market recovery since early in the pandemic, spreads on many fixed income securities have narrowed to close to pre-crisis lows. Economies are generally regaining strength, but their trajectory could be heavily influenced by the coronavirus, the potential for vaccines and political uncertainty.
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The Four U.S. Election Scenarios with Erik Knutzen
As we approach the 2020 U.S. election and its upcoming result, Erik Knutzen, CIO—Multi-Asset Class, dives into the possible scenarios and discusses the economic implications of what could happen with each hypothetical outcome.
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Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q4 2020
As noted in our previous reports the much-awaited global recovery from the onset of Covid-19 is facing significant headwinds. As the fallout from the crisis becomes clearer in scope and view, ensuing challenges remain daunting. The interplay between the factors will continue to evolve having an effect in the short and medium-term, the monitoring of these relationships will remain at the forefront of future communications.
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Why Tech Bubble Fears are Overdone
The tech sector’s impressive performance and increasing concentration in indexes has led to concerns of expensive valuations—with some fearing that we could be in bubble territory. In our view, such worries are not justified, and we believe tech’s outlook remains healthy.
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Outlook Upgraded, But Still Not in First Class…
The IMF upgraded their 2020 growth outlook due to better-than-anticipated U.S. and euro area 2Q20 GDP, but noted a long and uneven recovery. Global flash PMIs will likely show differentiation by region next week, and Brexit negotiations are expected to continue into November.
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From Buddha to Bagehot: how global banks are keeping the liquidity flowing
In previous editions, we have explored asset quality, the value of collateral and capital. This time, Fiorino turns his attention to another core concept of banking – liquidity – and considers how banks are keeping it plentiful amid the coronavirus-induced freeze.
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Global Investment Views - November 2020
Developments on the virus and vaccine front and the US election are hot topics. Markets are pricing in a glass-half-full scenario, despite the still-alarming infection numbers on the virus front (second wave in Europe and record new cases globally). The interconnection of the three cycles — virus, real economy and financial — continues, but the virus transmission mechanism is changing.