Outlooks – Page 47
-
White papers
Time to refocus on bonds - Rethinking portfolios after the great repricing
Inflation has risen to levels not seen in 40 years, leading to a repricing of financial markets this year, which has been particularly severe in the fixed income space. Central Banks have already started to hike rates and turn to the hawkish side to avoid de-anchoring inflation expectations. The era of low or even negative interest rates is over.
-
White papers
UK market turmoil points towards further volatility in global currencies
Investors’ focus is shifting from the poor growth/inflation mix to the extremely negative external balance picture in the UK. Last Friday (23/09), the government announced an additional 0.5% of GDP in unfunded tax cuts and the reaction of UK assets recalled actions we used to see only in emerging markets.
-
White papers
Preparing portfolios for the unexpected
Asset valuations are undergoing a considerable reshuffle in 2022, from bonds to equities to commodities. This vast reshuffling of the cards reflects a rapid rise in interest rates and especially in long-term real rates. The rise in real rates is unprecedented since the establishment of inflation-linked bond markets in the late 1990s, and triggering deep concern as US 10-year real yields approach 1.5%.
-
White papers
Rethinking sustainable packaging for zero waste
Our current take-make-waste system harms nature through excessive materials extraction, and, at the end, through crude waste disposal and pollution. Sustainable packaging is a growing industry that can help address the threat this poses to natural capital.
-
White papers
Italy election: no major surprise from the polls, maybe positive for markets
Election outcome and political scenario: The centre-right coalition won Italy’s general election on 25 September, with approximately 44% of votes. Overall, we believe that Italy’s general election offered no major surprises and at the margin, the news flow is positive, as the centre-right collation will not have a two-thirds parliamentary majority, which would have allowed it to vote for constitutional amendments.
-
White papers
They’ve got the power? European Utilities and the energy crisis
Robin Usson, Senior Credit Analyst, explains what the impact of the energy crisis on the European Utilities market means for investing in the sector.
-
White papers
Can we trust inflation forecasts?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we argue that inflation forecasts have become irrelevant in a volatile inflation environment and suggest more attention should be given to the components behind the overall figure.
-
White papers
Artificial Intelligence: Responsible AI and the path to long-term growth
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has drastically transformed the business environment and become critical to companies across a broad range of sectors – from finance to healthcare and automotive.
-
White papers
Investing in the future of food
There is an urgent need to re-evaluate our wasteful and unsustainable food systems if we are to meet the challenge of feeding a growing global population amid geopolitical shocks, climate change and unprecedented biodiversity loss. How can investors align portfolios with this shift?
-
White papers
Shipping and the transition to net zero
It will cost an estimated USD 1.65 trillion to decarbonise the shipping industry. What is the current state of the industry and what are some of the investable solutions that are enabling the transition?
-
White papers
20-21 September FOMC meeting: the move into restrictive territory
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and statement: On 21 September, the Fed hiked the Fed funds rate by 75bp, to 3-3.25%, the third consecutive 75bp rate hike, and the fifth rate increase in 2022. This means the central bank has raised rates by 3 percentage points this year, clearly prioritising its aim to tame inflation even if it means damaging economic growth.
-
White papers
Have investors deployed enough hedges?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we take stock of the Federal Reserve’s determination to bring inflation under control at the cost of economic growth and outline how this is impacting our portfolio positioning.
-
White papers
The burning issue: Avoiding ESG fatigue
How can we face existential problems and stay positive? Abigail Herron contemplates simple steps to protect momentum and avoid burnout.
-
White papers
Real-Time Macro Information and Bond Return Predictability: A Weighted Group Deep Learning Approach
This paper proposes a weighted group neural network model and reexamines whether treasury bond returns are predictable when real-time, instead of fully-revised, macro information is used. Real-time macro vintage data and news-based topic attention are taken into account.
-
White papers
Making Up Lost Ground
Another 75bps and more hawkish talk from Jerome Powell. Markets reacted swiftly to signals that more large increases are coming—more than they had priced in. See how this frontloading by central banks aligns with our central scenarios and expectations for the coming year.
-
White papers
ESG Viewpoint – Should ‘doing good’ pay out? Linking executive pay to ESG metrics
ESG metrics in pay matter. We explain why, outline our expectations for companies in this area and detail our engagement efforts and the progress made.
-
White papers
The lifeline of connectivity
In the digital age almost half the world’s population are still offline. The UN has warned that without decisive action, “the digital divide will become the new face of inequality.” But we believe investing with an impact lens can help provide a pathway to social inclusion through services for millions of people, address the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and embrace “double materiality” along the way.
-
White papers
Altruism or Self-Interest? ESG and Participation in Employee Share Plans
We ask how the ESG performance of firms affects the asset allocation of a large sample of French employees between their employer’s stock and alternative investments in firm sponsored savings plans. After ESG incidents, employees are less likely to invest and they invest smaller amounts in their company’s stock.
-
White papers
Eco-design and repair for circularity and regeneration
The transition to a circular bio-economy is creating investment opportunities for commercial solutions that leverage eco-design and cater to growing consumer demand for sustainable, durable and repairable products.
-
White papers
Plastic waste: possibilities and solutions
The ecological cost of plastic waste is well understood, but what about the myriad possibilities that it offers? We consider the investment opportunities from improvements in sorting technologies to advances in recycling techniques to refill schemes.