Outlooks – Page 45
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Outlook for GCC bond and equity markets amid macroeconomic headwinds
With growth slowing and recession becoming more of a possibility amid elevated inflation and hawkish central banks globally, GCC bond and equity markets have become more volatile.
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Have we become too used to low rates?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we examine the extent to which interest rate rises, rather than other macro and geopolitical factors, have been responsible for the falls in both equities and bonds this year.
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In the demographic winter, will we prefer pets to children?
Pope Francis fears the onset of a demographic winter, in which families choose to have more pets than children. It’s a contentious view, but is it based on a clear population trend?
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UK government woes continue to overshadow markets
Investors unnerved by conflicting plans of the Bank of England and the UK Treasury as central bank seeks to put brake on growth to tame inflation while government wants to put foot on the growth accelerator.
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U.S. Inflation Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot
Inflation rages on in the U.S. and elsewhere as the global economy faces further instability. What will this mean for central banks’ tightening efforts in the coming weeks, and are markets starting to recognize–and react–that it will take more time for prices to come down?
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Fixed Income Investment Outlook: 4Q 2022
Despite volatility, the basic storyline of inflation and the Federal Reserve should continue to drive market behavior. Over the months ahead, we anticipate continued tightening by the Fed and challenging European growth trends, with tail risks tied to the U.K., China weakness and policy overreach. A focus on shorter durations and quality, with opportunistic exposure to longer bonds and credit, merits consideration.
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Dimensions & Insights: Your growth story includes DEI
When Marion Donovan invented the first disposable diaper and pitched it to venture capitalists, they all laughed. Determined, she hired a lingerie manufacturer to help launch at Saks Fifth Ave, and made billions of parents’ diaper dreams come true. Lack of access for people with great ideas is one of the oldest stories in the world that still repeats today. However, today’s extremely competitive environment, ongoing disruptions, and innovations require diverse thinking and problem solving to find great opportunities.
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Artificial Intelligence and ESG: How do they fit?
Artificial Intelligence (AI) helps to circumvent some challenges with traditional ESG data. Textual and satellite data analysis can discover key ESG risks and opportunities. AI contributes to ESG integration by providing an alternative source of data for monitoring ESG reporting.
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Macroeconomic Picture - October 2022
United States: Growth. We are still calling a soft landing in the US, with an extended period of sub-par growth for 2023 and 2024. We expect the US economy to grow by 0.9% in 2023 (1.1% Q4/Q4) and 1.3% in 2024 (1.3% Q4/Q4). Inflation. Headline inflation has peaked in the ...
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Market Scenarios and Risks - October 2022
We maintain the content and probabilities of our scenarios. Note that some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets. It would take a combination of risk factors for the downside scenario to materialise. The downside is counterbalanced by an upside scenario, that of a rapid decline in inflation due to an easing of gas prices and/or to the combined tightening of global monetary policies, the impact of which can be underestimated.
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Too early for a Fed pivot
The flattening of the US yield curve will depend on the persistence of core inflation and on the impact of monetary tightening on growth. The more resilient the US economy proves to interest-rate hikes, the more aggressively the Fed will have to tighten monetary policy, thereby increasing the risk of recession. We have gone from ‘bad news is good news’ to ‘good news is bad news’.
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TLTRO in the context of ECB policy normalisation
TLTRO repayments and redemptions will drive incoming ECB passive QT over the next few quarters. So far, banks have repaid a small amount of liquidity, while the ECB’s recent decision on remuneration of excess reserves has helped keep current excess liquidity abundant, aiming at a smooth transmission of its monetary policy.
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Relaxed financial markets look at Lula’s comeback
The first electoral round was won by former President Lula. However, the incumbent, Bolsonaro, performed better than expected. Their economic agendas differ on a number of issues, while risks are more asymmetric under each candidate. Either could benefit from a robust macroeconomic scenario.
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CLOs: Up in Quality
Against a challenging macro backdrop, CLOs look attractive given the strong structural protections and incremental yield on offer—but there is a case to be made for staying up in quality.
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ESG Viewpoint – Can mining be a responsible investment?
Its environmental and social impacts can make mining hard to square with a responsible investment approach. As the world shifts away from fossil fuels – a move that increases demand for ‘transition metals’ – we explore the need to think again.
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The Meeting Room: Asia ex-Japan, September 2022
Join Jonathan Pines and Sandy Pei for the latest Federated Hermes Meeting Room: Virtual Portfolio Briefing on Asia ex-Japan.
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Markets on edge despite Bank of England intervention
Sweeping UK government tax cuts sent shockwaves through financial markets as investors and economists queried the wisdom behind the plan.
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When markets resist recession risk, macro analysis is pivotal
Asset prices are seemingly defying the global economic gloom, making analysis of macro indicators important in understanding how market conditions might evolve. In the latest quarterly edition of Simply put, we explain our current multi-asset portfolio positioning and the integration of a new, proprietary real-time macro overlay into our investment process.
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Central Bank Watch: To neutral and beyond
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income (FTFI) Central Bank Watch is a qualitative assessment of the central banks for the Group of Ten (G10) nations plus two additional countries (China and South Korea).
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Sovereign Fixed Income: An update on our ESG scores
Country institutions and income inequality have contributed to various problems with food insecurity, as well as impacting their ability to deal with it. Templeton Global Macro take a closer look and highlight five country case studies.