Latest Manager Research – Page 254
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White papersHow Ukraine Mission Creep Will Fuel the Next Inflation Wave
And that’s on top of the other risks from war aims that are turning ever more resolute, expansive, and vague.
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White papersDemographics of Migration - ISA2022 Insight Report
LaSalle’s survey of migration demographics Great migrations have contributed to the rise of cities for many centuries. The push and pull factors in the 2020s are not unlike those experienced in history: including pandemics, wars, socio-economic factors, and immigration policies. In our survey of current migration patterns, we discover great variety around the world. Key findings are summarized below:
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White papersShifts & Narratives #17 - Keeping up with climate change in setting long-term asset class views
Today climate change is arguably the most critical long-term challenge that humanity is facing. “Climate action failure” is not only the top longterm threat in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report for 2022, but is also a key element for investors to factor in when building long-term assumptions on the economy and markets.
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White papers3-4 May FOMC meeting: 50bp interest rate hike is bullish for markets
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and statement: On 4 May, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked the Fed funds rate by 50bp to 0.75-1.00%, the first back-to-back hike since the second quarter of 2006. The FOMC statement signaled the start of a series of rate hikes. The Fed downplayed the negative Q1 GDP data, while upgrading its inflation assessment.
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White papersConstant chaos: 4.669 reasons why car-tech could outpace insurers
Fiorino explores what’s driving change in the car insurance market – and why incumbents may have to get out of the road…
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White papersInflation-Fighting Properties
Real estate has tended to get a prominent page in inflation playbooks—but do some parts of the market get a particularly strong tailwind from rising prices?
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White papersCould Your Beta Be Better?
In the first of our articles on working with Official Institutions, we look into the importance of regularly questioning the assumptions behind your benchmark.
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White papersUS workforce housing: Driving compelling returns and social good
Affordable workforce rental housing is an oft-overlooked category of US multifamily housing investment given the skills and capital required to turnaround assets. Yet, workforce housing could offer institutional investors a scalable opportunity to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns and target high-impact social good. Crucially, with state-funded affordable housing in the US in short supply, owner-operator platforms focused on improving the quality and condition of housing units could help to deliver positive social outcomes for tenants and surrounding communities.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - May 2022
United States: the surge in inflation to a multi-decade high is compressing real incomes and could negatively impact consumer confidence, spending and saving behaviour, as some surveys seem to expect. At the same time, companies’ capex intentions remain high, suggesting that, while US consumption may be decelerating, capex should ...
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White papersHold tight for the Chinese demand shock: faith over fear
The extended lockdown in Shanghai and other cities have shattered market confidence, sending Chinese equity market down again over the month. Taking into account the damage of the zero-Covid policy to the Chinese economy, we expect a recession in Q2 and full-year growth to undershoot the government target by a wide margin (Amundi forecast 3.5% versus the 5.5% official target).
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White papersUpward pressures on inflation are the major market driver
We expect central banks to remain on the hawkish side as long as inflation expectations remain on the upside, as central banks are afraid of losing their credibility. However, the Fed and the ECB are in different positions. The Fed wants to tighten financing conditions to slow demand, as the US economy is running hot. However, the ECB is stuck in an impossible situation: Eurozone inflation is primarily driven by higher energy costs, and a central bank has few “tools” to fight cost-driven inflation without hurting growth.
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White papersFrench presidential election: Macron’s victory provides continuity but lacks political support
The incumbent president’s re-election avoids an unpredictable political phase for France. Although Emmanuel Macron provides stability from an economic and a geopolitical standpoint, his narrower electoral base might be an issue in implementing his reform agenda.
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White papers50 Is The New 25
The FOMC raised the Fed funds rate by 50bps and announced the beginning of quantitative tightening. Chairman Powell signaled that 50bps hikes will be the new normal for the next couple of meetings, as inflation fears remain. The BoE and ECB also contemplate their paths ahead.
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White papersThe moment of truth for office as workers begin their return
A greatly uneven pattern is unfolding globally as staff make their way back to the office. With data on office utilization hard to come by globally, non-traditional datasets can help shed light on how the return to the office is taking shape.
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White papersSustainable Asian cities: A compelling – and urgent – investment opportunity
In their white paper, “Sustainable Asian cities – preparing now for the future”, our Emerging Markets Debt team and Sustainability Centre detail the rationale underpinning a new investment strategy which targets companies that can help Asian cities achieve the sustainable changes they need to make to deal with an over-stretched infrastructure, migration and climate change.
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives - April 2022
Quarterly macro and market insights from Capital Group’s fixed income team
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - May 2022
We keep the narratives and the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month. However, the war in Ukraine could evolve in several ways (see Ukraine crisis tree) with significant implications on economic and financial markets. The new wave of Covid-19 in China is another source of uncertainty over the short-term.
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White papersQ2 2022: A late cycle with a greater focus on inflation
The shift to an inflationary late cycle has been confirmed with greater conviction and a focus on higher inflation (and rates). Economic momentum is still decelerating at a global level but with tentative signs of stabilisation.
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White papersSetting your investment objectives: institutional asset allocation practice
Most institutional investors already have an Investment Policy Statement (IPS) that defines the objectives, investment limits, investment universe and governance of their portfolios. These parameters are not set in stone and must be reviewed periodically given changes in investors’ circumstances, philosophy, long-term expectations and regulations.
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White papersDoes the EM debt repricing present a good entry point?
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, a spike in commodity prices and rising global inflation have raised fresh questions about the outlook for emerging markets (EM) debt. Recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank suggest global growth is slowing. And the U.S. Federal Reserve appears set to front-load rate hikes in this tightening cycle, heightening the risk of a recession.
