We keep the narratives and the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month. However, the war in Ukraine could evolve in several ways (see Ukraine crisis tree) with significant implications on economic and financial markets. The new wave of Covid-19 in China is another source of uncertainty over the short-term.
We keep the probability of economic and geopolitical risks to 30% to take into account the war in Ukraine and its potential implications on the economic and financial risks. We consider Covid-19-related risks (including lockdowns in China) to be part of the economic risks.
Risks are clustered to ease the detection of hedging strategies, but they are obviously linked.
You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below
