At the time of writing (April 2025), the global economy faces heightened levels of uncertainty, making it challenging to forecast near-term issuance of green, social, sustainability, and sustainability-linked (GSSS) bonds in emerging markets. That said, some underlying market drivers are apparent, such as a likely pickup in new issuance to refinance existing debt that is reaching maturity. GSSS bonds are a relatively young asset class, established with the first green bond transactions more than a decade ago. Approximately $330 billion of those bonds will soon come to maturity and will need to be replaced over the next three years. On the other hand, three factors are likely to constrain new GSSS bond sales. First, weaker global economic growth amid turmoil in the global trading system. Second, recent regulatory changes in Europe such as new rules on how funds are named that are intended to curb greenwashing (misstating the extent to which financial instruments meet sustainability criteria), could reduce the number of sustainable funds that buy GSSS assets. Third, interest in sustainable investing may have peaked in several countries, adding uncertainty to projected flows of finance to fund technological upgrades and sustainable development in emerging markets. 

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