All Fixed Income articles – Page 86
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White papersInvestment View - Sudden stop, permanent scars
Six months ago our quarterly ‘Investment Views’ (Graph 1) lamented about the spread of the negative yield disease. In 2020 a far more dangerous and lethal epidemic has hit society, the economy and financial markets: the coronavirus. As we go to press, more than 1.2 million cases have been recorded globally (a number likely grossly under-estimated, given the under-testing), for a death toll of 65k.
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White papersA Shocking (But Complicated) Employment Report Next Friday
Unemployment will clearly skyrocket, yet the April Employment Report next Friday won’t tell the full story, and the impacts will differ by state and industry.
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White papersRoads to recovery from the coronavirus crisis
Will the global economic and market recoveries chart a V, U, W or swoosh-shaped recovery from the coronavirus crisis – or take a completely different course?
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White papersThe TALF 2.0 Opportunity in Asset Backed Securities
During the 2008 – 10 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve’s Term Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) enabled double-digit returns from high-rated ABS. What are the prospects under TALF 2.0, part of the Fed’s COVID-19 response?
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White papersCovid-19 Fixed income - Public credit - the end of beginning
Credit markets have continued to develop in recent weeks as participants digest events and various official intervention strategies, and consider the ramifications for taking credit risk in the future.
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White papersManaging Risk Models in the Coronavirus Crisis
The spread of the COVID-19 virus has blindsided conventional risk models. By understanding what went wrong, investors can develop a more forward-looking approach to risk management that considers multiple scenarios for a highly uncertain market environment.
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White papersMunicipal Bond Market Update
James Iselin, Neuberger Berman’s Head of Municipal Fixed Income, discusses the potential for a rise in delinquencies and defaults across the municipal bond market.
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White papersOpportunity In Credit Fixed Income Investment Outlook 2Q 2020
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the fixed income markets experienced unprecedented shocks, which drove down yields on many government bonds and sharply widened credit spreads. Amid compromised global growth and historic levels of monetary stimulus, we anticipate a potentially long period of zero (or negative) policy rates, with central banks increasingly buying higher-quality assets. With that in mind, we see a compelling opportunity in credit spreads, with an initial focus on quality securities in central bank-supported sectors broadening out to take on more risk as the pandemic runs its course.
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White papersCovid-19 update: European high yield market moves
An influx of ‘fallen angels’, which are issuers downgraded to junk bond status by the credit ratings agencies, has impacted European credit markets as a result of the economic fallout from the coronavirus. The movement of these names into European high yield (HY) credit indices has somewhat compensated for ...
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White papersEuropean private debt: shifting dynamics
This paper examines the main sources of deal flow across Europe’s broad and dynamic private debt markets in 2019, highlighting some of the key observations or themes influencing deal activity in different parts of the market. It discusses the broad themes that we believe are key to investing in private debt and can help well-positioned lenders access and align opportunities that can deliver the specific outcomes sought by investors. The Covid-19 pandemic has created unprecedented uncertainty, but even during this time it’s important not to lose sight of the long term.
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White papersWhat Plunging Oil Prices Mean for Energy Bonds
On April 20, the price of oil skidded into negative territory for the first time in history, with the May futures contract on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hitting a low of –US$37.63 per barrel before recovering to positive levels.
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White papersRevisiting The Global High Yield Outlook In The Wake Of The Covid-19 Pandemic
Global HY markets sold off aggressively between February and March in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, the oil price war and the liquidity freeze in some markets. An analysis of past peak-and-trough episodes in the US HY market shows that on most occasions investors have enjoyed positive market returns just one year after the peak. Three years past such a peak, market returns have proven positive in all six occurrences since 2000.
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White papersSize matters: Will COVID-19 lead to a concentration of corporate power?
The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic could see large firms cement their dominance over weaker rivals. We examine the implications for investors.
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White papersPerspective on Private Credit
Listen to David Lyon as he discusses the current dislocation in the credit markets and the types of investment opportunities that may emerge as a result.
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White papersPlotting the path to recovery: V, L or Nike swoosh?
The market sell-off and spike in volatility have left investors reeling. While history doesn’t always repeat itself, it often rhymes and a closer look at the data indicates there are lessons we can learn from previous drawdowns.
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White papersOpportunity in Credit Dislocation
Michael Holmberg and John Humphrey provide an update on the credit market dislocations resulting from the crisis, what is causing concern in the market and how to find the opportunities that are emerging.
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White papersInvesting in a post-crisis world
The ongoing crisis has thrown investors’ plans into turmoil. Long-term portfolio return expectations have changed and investors may need to think beyond traditional asset classes to generate the income they need. Hear from Nuveen’s Global Investment Committee on where they are finding opportunities and how best to position portfolios during, and after, the crisis.
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White papersTaking the Bite Out of High Yield’s Tail Risk
A new buyer has arrived on the scene of U.S. high yield markets, and it happens to be the biggest buyer of them all: the U.S. Federal Reserve.
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White papersThe impact of COVID-19 on global high yield
As an increasing number of companies battle the economic consequences of COVID-19, their ability to service bond payments is coming under intense scrutiny. In this Q&A, Sunita Kara considers whether current high-yield valuations adequately compensate investors for default risk and looks at the broader implications of the pandemic.
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White papers10 (mostly new) predictions for 2020: A light at the end of a very long tunnel
We launched our original set of 2020 predictions a few months ago with the theme, “Uncertainties diminish, but markets struggle.” The coronavirus pandemic and resulting economic and market upheaval have since changed everything. In early March, consensus expectations for 2020 global GDP growth were +3%. Now they are -3%.1 A 6% swing would be unusual over a three-year time period. We just saw one in a month.
