All Emerging Market articles – Page 47
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White papersBlog: Sustainable investing in Europe: Why putting a label on it really matters
The labels that independently certify sustainable investment strategies in Europe are by no means new – in fact, they have multiplied and been expanded in recent years. Cynics may view such labels as bureaucratic meddling that adds unwanted hassle and cost. Far from it.
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White papersTop Risk Map - February 2020
At the start of the 2020s, markets continued to be dominated by geopolitical issues, with short-lived Iran tensions at the forefront initially, followed by the news regarding a phase one trade deal between the US and China. Now, growth expectations are becoming the main driver of the market. That’s why the recent volatility due to the news about the spreading of the corona virus in China is higher than in the case of US-Iran tensions, as the epidemic could harm China (and global growth) if not contained soon (not our base case at the moment).
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White papersFocus On Fundamentals: Virus Volatility Provides Entry Points For EM Equities
The coronavirus has been the strongest driver behind the recent volatility in financial markets, providing the trigger for a break in the rally in risk assets, which had been running uninterrupted since October.We should be aware that the trough for markets could be well in advance of the peak of the epidemic, as markets tend to overreact at the beginning of a crisis and then stabilise and rebound, despite the continuation of the negative news flow.
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White papersEM Local Debt’s Time to Shine?
Emerging markets (EM) local currency denominated debt may be poised to outperform.
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White papersStrategic Relative Value – Q1 2020
Persistent central bank liquidity and easing geopolitical tensions should support a continued rally in risk assets this year. However, the significant disconnect between elevated valuations and only modest economic growth means risk assets are vulnerable to a deterioration in sentiment so investors should also maintain some defensive positioning.
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White papersWhat Can German Equity Investors Expect in the Months Ahead?
While the phase one U.S.-China trade deal may provide a near-term boost for German equities, there are a number of risks on the horizon that could introduce volatility in the months ahead—making stock selection as important as ever.
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White papersGoing Viral: The Coronavirus or a Central Bank Holding Pattern?
Wuhan goes on lockdown while the U.S. shifts trade truce considerations to Europe. Meanwhile, Central banks remain optimistic for strengthening global growth, and we’re vigilant for potential insurance cuts from the BoE next week.
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White papersSpectrum Asset Management Outlook for 2020
Some macro risks—such as Brexit—appear to be de-escalating, but uncertainties continue; trade war negotiations are likely to overhang sentiment into the United States election.
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White papersCore Matters - Germany’s fading shine
The investment case for Germany is dwindling. Following the GFC, Germany’s annual growth outperformed the rest of the euro area in from 2010 to 2017 by 1.2 pp on average. That said, in 2018 German growth underperformed and is expected to do so also in 2019 and 2020.
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White papersEurope At An Economic Policy Crossroads
On an international scale, Europe is struggling to establish itself, in particular against the two giants, the United States and China. The European Union (EU) must therefore be strengthened at all levels: political/ diplomatic, security/defence, financial architecture, development of high technologies, financing of the energy transition, etc.
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White papersInvestment Outlook 2020 - Hotel California: No Leaving QE
Central bank policy is moving backwards now instead of forward, with three rate cuts reversed so far in the US and the European Central Bank (ECB) relaunching quantitative easing (QE). ‘Lower-for-longer’ risks are becoming a permanent state of affairs, with major significant implications for fixed income markets and investors. ...
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White papersBlog: Investing for tomorrow – applying ESG principles to emerging market debt
In the past, investors often balked at the idea of applying environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria when investing in emerging markets. We believe such an attitude is based on outdated associations of low income with political, social or economic disadvantages. Many EM countries have undergone significant progress and now have middle-income status.
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White papersBlog: China themes for 2020 – growth and policy (2/2)
What to expect economically from superpower China in 2020? In the final part of this two-part series, senior economist Chi Lo discusses the outlook for inflation, growth and central bank policy.
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White papersBlog: China themes for 2020 – trade war developments (1/2)
What are the key themes to watch for economic superpower China in 2020? In part 1 of this two-part series, senior economist Chi Lo discusses the outlook for the trade relationship with the US, China’s tactics and the consequences for world supply chains.
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White papersEnjoy the Twenties While You Can
Sooner or later, the decade’s returns will face pressure from populism, technology and climate.
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White papersBlog: A scenario analysis for China’s 2020 outlook
Although recent data from China points to a broad-based recovery, downside risk to growth remains since business confidence has not returned and liquidity has not bounced back solidly yet.
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White papersThe (new) working world: promoting workplace well-being
This is the third part of a four-part series on SDG 8 – decent work and economic growth. In our first two instalments, we demonstrated how we are engaging with companies on their hiring practices and efforts in the shift towards fairer pay outcomes. Today, we progress to the issue of employee benefits.
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White papersRich in opportunity
Events in emerging markets over the last couple of years have borne out our conviction that, over the long term, growth stocks in these markets will outperform value.
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White papersTrade war clouds the outlook
The effects of the US’s multiple confrontations with allies and adversaries over its terms of trade with the rest of the world have overshadowed commodity markets throughout 2019. At the beginning of this year we anticipated relatively swift progress towards a trade deal between the US and China. But as the year progressed it became clear that this confrontation would last much longer than we had initially expected. We now believe it will continue beyond the US presidential election late next year, irrespective of which candidate wins.
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White papersOutlook 2020: The Beauty of Symmetry
− Global growth is finding its feet, but a powerful upswing is not around the corner: risks such a Hard Brexit (still!) and the US elections are impediments to a meaningful capex recovery.
− 2019 was in many ways similar to 2016; but 2020 will not be a repeat of 2017. We expect equity gains to continue, but in a far more muted fashion.
− Central banks engineered a stunning risk rally in 2019; they will be less active in 2020. But nascent efforts to make inflation targets more symmetrical will remain a risk-friendly force.
