All China articles – Page 14
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White papersExports’ dependence to China and Asia of more than 70 countries
The Coronavirus is expected to have a significant impact at least on China Q1 GDP figure. This will affect many countries firstly through exports to China (including tourism). As shown in charts below and as expected, China’s share in total of exports is high for most of Asian countries particularly for South Korea, Hong Kong and Mongolia. Including Japan, share of exports to Asia for Asian countries is above 50% except for China, India, Sri Lanka and Kazakhstan.
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White papersRevisiting China’s Equity Markets as Coronavirus Spreads
Growing fears about the coronavirus have hit Chinese stocks. While markets will remain unstable until China gets the outbreak under control, equity investors should revisit lessons from previous epidemics and consider the potential longer-term effects of the current crisis.
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White papersAnother Breakthrough Year for China Bonds
The market made it into global indices but also broke records for defaults in 2019 and is facing uncertainty from the coronavirus: we take stock for 2020.
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White papersFocus On Fundamentals: Virus Volatility Provides Entry Points For EM Equities
The coronavirus has been the strongest driver behind the recent volatility in financial markets, providing the trigger for a break in the rally in risk assets, which had been running uninterrupted since October.We should be aware that the trough for markets could be well in advance of the peak of the epidemic, as markets tend to overreact at the beginning of a crisis and then stabilise and rebound, despite the continuation of the negative news flow.
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White papersBlog: China themes for 2020 – growth and policy (2/2)
What to expect economically from superpower China in 2020? In the final part of this two-part series, senior economist Chi Lo discusses the outlook for inflation, growth and central bank policy.
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White papersBlog: China themes for 2020 – trade war developments (1/2)
What are the key themes to watch for economic superpower China in 2020? In part 1 of this two-part series, senior economist Chi Lo discusses the outlook for the trade relationship with the US, China’s tactics and the consequences for world supply chains.
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White papersA U.S.-China Trade Deal Looms While Oil Prices Boomerang
Tensions are high around the world, global growth is low, while oil prices boomerang amidst the Iran clash.
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White papersBlog: A scenario analysis for China’s 2020 outlook
Although recent data from China points to a broad-based recovery, downside risk to growth remains since business confidence has not returned and liquidity has not bounced back solidly yet.
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White papersChina’s Growth Tremors: Risks, Opportunities And The Road Ahead
Economy: soft landing and light policy support. In terms of Chinese growth, we see the rate continuing to slow. Chinese GDP growth rose 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019 (Chinese authorities forecasted a range of 6.0%-6.5% YoY), the slowest pace since the early 1990s. Moving into 2020, we do expect that the new growth target will be set around 6.0%, if not lower, at between 5.5% and 6.0%, and our current forecast is confirmed at 5.8% YoY.Exports unsurprisingly have been weak, private capex has slowed notably, and public infrastructure has not picked up as expected. Going forward, we expect public infrastructure capex to accelerate, and the tight real estate policy stance to potentially moderate. Chinese policy mix remains stimulative, though in a very limited way so far and far away from the massive stimulus implemented in recent years.
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White papersWhat Do We Really Want From China? And What Can We Reasonably Expect?
Even an unexpected trade deal this week between the U.S. and China will not alter the trajectory of two alternate political, economic and social models coming to terms with each other as a fresh decade dawns.
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White papersTrade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth
Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China. Concerning extra-tariffs measures, in August the temporary licences granted to US companies to operate with Huawei were extended upon their expiration but, so far, with no additional structural guidance.
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White papersChina: A weighty issue?
Much time and effort has been devoted to under- standing the recent rise of China as a major global economic power. It is, however, important to also note that China (or at least the precursor territories making up modern China) was the largest single economy in the world until the late 1800s and had been so for several hundred years. This isn’t surprising, as people have lived a subsistence or agrarian existence with fairly low output per capita for most of human history.
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White papersChanging China
In little over 40 years, China has emerged onto the global scene as a key player in the world economy. It has regained a self-confidence last seen centuries ago. This rapid ascent has prompted change in global ideas about politics, economics and world order. Rather than rush headlong into capitalism, China has tried to modernise the planned economy, implementing incremental changes and downplaying any discussion of the ultimate goal.
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White papersUS-China Trade War: Walking a Tightrope
Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures in form of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.
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White papersAre Distressed Small Banks Putting China’s Banking System at Risk?
It’s been 20 years since a Chinese bank failed. But recent bailouts of three regional lenders have raised concerns about systemic problems in China’s financial sector. While risks have grown for China’s smaller banks, we believe that the Chinese banking system remains robust.
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White papersThe impact of African Swine Fever on the agricultural industry: a complex puzzle
The outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China is making headlines as it impacts the biggest pork market in the world. Industry experts consider this a ‘transformational event’ for the global pork sector that is ‘creating a devastating effect.
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White papersWill trade tensions reshape the world order?
The protectionist wave will almost certainly have a chilling effect on the global economy. But trade growth was slowing well before the US-China spat. In the latest Ahead of the Curve, we assess whether the tariff war is disruptive or merely accelerating trends already underway. And will we find opportunities in this fragmented global system, or only challenges?
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White papersTime is running out to solve China’s debt bubble
Many investors are focused on the outlook for trade talks with the US, fearing an all-out trade war which would negatively impact global, and especially Chinese, equity markets. But investors underestimate the mounting problems caused by the recent rapid expansion of credit in China. Only radical solutions now remain to resolve the country’s growing credit bubble, says Paul Smillie.
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White papersChina’s Currency Weakness: Not as Bad as it Seems—Yet
China’s currency depreciated this week, with the exchange rate rising to more than 7.0 renminbi per US dollar, unnerving investors and markets worldwide. Here’s the good news: we don’t think the renminbi will continue to weaken at the same pace.
