All China articles – Page 13
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White papersThere’s More Than Huawei To Find Conflict With China
Growing tensions with China could lead to decisive reactions from Donald Trump and now Boris Johnson. U.S. retail sales are expected to improve in June, and the ECB will likely be in wait-and-see mode to assess the monetary measures it has already taken.
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White papers“The World’s Factory” Reopens
Just as Chinese manufacturers are coming back online, the rest of the global economy is still struggling to contain the outbreak. With overseas demand for Chinese manufactured goods weakening, where does demand come from? How might this affect China’s economy?
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White papersA New Cold War?
U.S.-China relations have been tested over the course of the pandemic. There are rising concerns that a potential decoupling of the two countries could usher in a new cold war, which may bring negative impacts to the overall global economy. How might this affect China?
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White papersWhy Have Chinese Stocks Held Up So Well?
China’s stock markets have been remarkably resilient. As the world’s second-largest economy emerged first from the virus-induced shock, corporate earnings downgrades were relatively contained while government stimulus was preserved for future use.
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White papersPreparing Chinese Holdings for Potential US Action
Tensions between the US and China are flaring up again, but tariffs probably aren’t on the table this time. With pressure mounting on Chinese stocks listed in the US, including those widely held in emerging-market portfolios, investors need to consider how to prepare for the mounting risks.
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White papersWhat We Can Learn from China’s Rapid Normalization
China is further along the coronavirus curve than much of the rest of the world and is on a fast path toward normal. We think its experience bears close watching—not only because China is a major contributor to global economic activity, but also because there will likely be important takeaways for the rest of the world as other countries plan their own reopenings.
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White papersMarket weekly – Chinese equities – ahead of the curve
Year to date, the Chinese market is one of the best performing equity markets globally. Can such performance be sustained for the rest of 2020, however? Senior investment strategist Daniel Morris discusses the outlook with Caroline Yu Maurer, Head of Greater China Equities and Chi Lo, Senior Economist for Greater China, both from our Hong Kong office.
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Asset Manager NewsGLP Closes US$2.1 Billion China Income Fund I
New and existing investors include seven Chinese institutional investors
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White papersChina Recovers
China was the first economy to be struck down by COVID-19, but that means it is the first to recover—and its onshore bond and equity markets may be a good place to get exposure.
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White papersIs Vietnam Ready to Fill China’s Supply Chain Gaps?
When we travelled to Vietnam in late December, the first novel coronavirus cases hadn’t even been reported in China. Now, with the virus battering Chinese manufacturing, our impressions from that visit seem especially timely as investors seek to assess the shift of global supply chains to Vietnamese factories.
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White papersExports’ dependence to China and Asia of more than 70 countries
The Coronavirus is expected to have a significant impact at least on China Q1 GDP figure. This will affect many countries firstly through exports to China (including tourism). As shown in charts below and as expected, China’s share in total of exports is high for most of Asian countries particularly for South Korea, Hong Kong and Mongolia. Including Japan, share of exports to Asia for Asian countries is above 50% except for China, India, Sri Lanka and Kazakhstan.
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White papersRevisiting China’s Equity Markets as Coronavirus Spreads
Growing fears about the coronavirus have hit Chinese stocks. While markets will remain unstable until China gets the outbreak under control, equity investors should revisit lessons from previous epidemics and consider the potential longer-term effects of the current crisis.
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White papersAnother Breakthrough Year for China Bonds
The market made it into global indices but also broke records for defaults in 2019 and is facing uncertainty from the coronavirus: we take stock for 2020.
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White papersFocus On Fundamentals: Virus Volatility Provides Entry Points For EM Equities
The coronavirus has been the strongest driver behind the recent volatility in financial markets, providing the trigger for a break in the rally in risk assets, which had been running uninterrupted since October.We should be aware that the trough for markets could be well in advance of the peak of the epidemic, as markets tend to overreact at the beginning of a crisis and then stabilise and rebound, despite the continuation of the negative news flow.
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White papersBlog: China themes for 2020 – growth and policy (2/2)
What to expect economically from superpower China in 2020? In the final part of this two-part series, senior economist Chi Lo discusses the outlook for inflation, growth and central bank policy.
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White papersBlog: China themes for 2020 – trade war developments (1/2)
What are the key themes to watch for economic superpower China in 2020? In part 1 of this two-part series, senior economist Chi Lo discusses the outlook for the trade relationship with the US, China’s tactics and the consequences for world supply chains.
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White papersA U.S.-China Trade Deal Looms While Oil Prices Boomerang
Tensions are high around the world, global growth is low, while oil prices boomerang amidst the Iran clash.
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White papersBlog: A scenario analysis for China’s 2020 outlook
Although recent data from China points to a broad-based recovery, downside risk to growth remains since business confidence has not returned and liquidity has not bounced back solidly yet.
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White papersChina’s Growth Tremors: Risks, Opportunities And The Road Ahead
Economy: soft landing and light policy support. In terms of Chinese growth, we see the rate continuing to slow. Chinese GDP growth rose 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019 (Chinese authorities forecasted a range of 6.0%-6.5% YoY), the slowest pace since the early 1990s. Moving into 2020, we do expect that the new growth target will be set around 6.0%, if not lower, at between 5.5% and 6.0%, and our current forecast is confirmed at 5.8% YoY.Exports unsurprisingly have been weak, private capex has slowed notably, and public infrastructure has not picked up as expected. Going forward, we expect public infrastructure capex to accelerate, and the tight real estate policy stance to potentially moderate. Chinese policy mix remains stimulative, though in a very limited way so far and far away from the massive stimulus implemented in recent years.
