All China articles – Page 13
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White papers
Revisiting China’s Equity Markets as Coronavirus Spreads
Growing fears about the coronavirus have hit Chinese stocks. While markets will remain unstable until China gets the outbreak under control, equity investors should revisit lessons from previous epidemics and consider the potential longer-term effects of the current crisis.
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White papers
Fixed Income Outlook: 2020 Will the Economy survive the politics?
New year, new decade—we’re off to the races. None of the doom-and-gloom predictions materialized in 2019. Trade tensions did not spiral into out-of-control trade wars, new tariffs did not have a major macroeconomic impact, the US economic expansion did not halt and China’s economy did not stall. The lesson learned is that last year, too many people worried too much about the wrong things.
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White papers
Another Breakthrough Year for China Bonds
The market made it into global indices but also broke records for defaults in 2019 and is facing uncertainty from the coronavirus: we take stock for 2020.
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White papers
Focus On Fundamentals: Virus Volatility Provides Entry Points For EM Equities
The coronavirus has been the strongest driver behind the recent volatility in financial markets, providing the trigger for a break in the rally in risk assets, which had been running uninterrupted since October.We should be aware that the trough for markets could be well in advance of the peak of the epidemic, as markets tend to overreact at the beginning of a crisis and then stabilise and rebound, despite the continuation of the negative news flow.
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White papers
Blog: China themes for 2020 – growth and policy (2/2)
What to expect economically from superpower China in 2020? In the final part of this two-part series, senior economist Chi Lo discusses the outlook for inflation, growth and central bank policy.
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White papers
Blog: China themes for 2020 – trade war developments (1/2)
What are the key themes to watch for economic superpower China in 2020? In part 1 of this two-part series, senior economist Chi Lo discusses the outlook for the trade relationship with the US, China’s tactics and the consequences for world supply chains.
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White papers
A U.S.-China Trade Deal Looms While Oil Prices Boomerang
Tensions are high around the world, global growth is low, while oil prices boomerang amidst the Iran clash.
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White papers
Blog: A scenario analysis for China’s 2020 outlook
Although recent data from China points to a broad-based recovery, downside risk to growth remains since business confidence has not returned and liquidity has not bounced back solidly yet.
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White papers
China’s Growth Tremors: Risks, Opportunities And The Road Ahead
Economy: soft landing and light policy support. In terms of Chinese growth, we see the rate continuing to slow. Chinese GDP growth rose 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019 (Chinese authorities forecasted a range of 6.0%-6.5% YoY), the slowest pace since the early 1990s. Moving into 2020, we do expect that the new growth target will be set around 6.0%, if not lower, at between 5.5% and 6.0%, and our current forecast is confirmed at 5.8% YoY.Exports unsurprisingly have been weak, private capex has slowed notably, and public infrastructure has not picked up as expected. Going forward, we expect public infrastructure capex to accelerate, and the tight real estate policy stance to potentially moderate. Chinese policy mix remains stimulative, though in a very limited way so far and far away from the massive stimulus implemented in recent years.
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Asset Manager News
One Museum Place Named Best Green Development
Hines, the international real estate firm, is pleased to announce that the recently completed One Museum Place—which is distinguishing itself in the Shanghai market with a combination of robust, innovative design and sustainability features—has been awarded the Best Green Development at the 2019 MIPIM Asia Awards. The project and development team will be honored at an awards ceremony in November.
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White papers
Chinese local currency debt: coming of age
China’s onshore renminbi-denominated bond market is an emerging asset class of global significance.
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White papers
What Do We Really Want From China? And What Can We Reasonably Expect?
Even an unexpected trade deal this week between the U.S. and China will not alter the trajectory of two alternate political, economic and social models coming to terms with each other as a fresh decade dawns.
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White papers
Investing In Chinese Onshore Debt - Overcoming the storm
Writing in the South China Morning Post Cary Yeung head of greater China debt explains why the country’s USD13 trillion onshore bond market is well-placed to overcome a weak yuan and the trade war.
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White papers
Eight charts that explain the growing importance of China A-shares
More and more international investors are turning their attention to the increasingly important China A shares market. Here’s why.
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White papers
Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth
Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China. Concerning extra-tariffs measures, in August the temporary licences granted to US companies to operate with Huawei were extended upon their expiration but, so far, with no additional structural guidance.
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White papers
China: A weighty issue?
Much time and effort has been devoted to under- standing the recent rise of China as a major global economic power. It is, however, important to also note that China (or at least the precursor territories making up modern China) was the largest single economy in the world until the late 1800s and had been so for several hundred years. This isn’t surprising, as people have lived a subsistence or agrarian existence with fairly low output per capita for most of human history.
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White papers
Changing China
In little over 40 years, China has emerged onto the global scene as a key player in the world economy. It has regained a self-confidence last seen centuries ago. This rapid ascent has prompted change in global ideas about politics, economics and world order. Rather than rush headlong into capitalism, China has tried to modernise the planned economy, implementing incremental changes and downplaying any discussion of the ultimate goal.
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White papers
US-China Trade War: Walking a Tightrope
Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures in form of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.
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White papers
Are Distressed Small Banks Putting China’s Banking System at Risk?
It’s been 20 years since a Chinese bank failed. But recent bailouts of three regional lenders have raised concerns about systemic problems in China’s financial sector. While risks have grown for China’s smaller banks, we believe that the Chinese banking system remains robust.
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White papers
The impact of African Swine Fever on the agricultural industry: a complex puzzle
The outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China is making headlines as it impacts the biggest pork market in the world. Industry experts consider this a ‘transformational event’ for the global pork sector that is ‘creating a devastating effect.