The results of the U.S. presidential election are on many investors’ minds heading into 2025. What are the potential implications for global fixed income markets?
BP: Donald Trump’s victory, at a high level, will likely mean stronger growth and less regulation— and the U.S. high yield market was very quick to price that scenario in following the election. From a sector standpoint, the effects of Trump’s policies on energy will be interesting. While energy rallied following the election, it’s unclear whether a so-called “drill baby drill” scenario is necessarily a good outcome for the sector, or whether it will meaningfully increase supply—especially since prices, not regulation, have been the key determinants of energy supply in recent years. And of course, there are demand and geopolitical elements that could impact the picture as well.
RA: From a geopolitical standpoint, there is a perception that risks are waning now that the election is behind us. That may be true to an extent—especially regarding Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East—but I do have nagging concerns that the market may be getting overly optimistic given the vast array of complicating factors surrounding each of these geopolitical crises.
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