Our Convictions: June 2017

What’s new in recent weeks?

The lull has continued over the last few weeks, with virtually all political risks disappearing in Europe and encouraging and even reassuring economic indicators in all countries.

Confidence surveys and economic indicators continue to show continued global growth, which is still driven by domestic demand. In the United States, with GDP estimates showing a net rebound in the second quarter: after a relatively weak first quarter (which was revised upwards from 0.9% to 1.2%), growth is gaining ground. According to estimates, annualised GDP growth rates should be between 2.2% (New York Fed) and 3.7% (Atlanta Fed) in Q2. At the same time, the unemployment rate reached a 10-year low (4.4% versus a long-term unemployment estimated at 4.7% by the Fed). As inflation also drops (1.9% for core inflation), this is not a concern for the financial markets. Same sentiment on growth in Europe with more good messages coming from the investment.

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