Market Scenarios and Risks - July/August 2022

We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenarios unchanged vs. last month. The new wave of Covid-19 and stagnation in the Eurozone are adding growth uncertainty over the short-term.

We maintain the probabilities of economic, financial and (geo)political risks to 30%. We consider Covid-19-related risks (including lockdowns in China) to be part of the economic risks. Risks are clustered to ease the detection of hedging strategies, but they are obviously linked.

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