As the global economy emerges from its worst slump since the 1930s, we envisage plenty of inflation fertilisers at stake, especially in the United States. Inflationary trends could emerge due to a combination of factors, including the cyclical recovery as countries try to get the pandemic under control and gradually lift mitigation measures
This will come at the same time as a super-sized US fiscal stimulus, supply chain bottlenecks, pent-up demand and savings, and upward pressure on wages. In addition, the infrastructure plan is likely to be passed by the US Congress in late-2021, unfolding its impact mainly in 2022-23 and in the longer run.
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