We revise the probabilities of our alternative scenarios. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced in, especially by equity markets.
We think risks remain skewed to the downside in the short term, but at the same time, we believe that it would take an unlikely combination of several risk factors to trigger the downside scenario at the 12-18 month horizon. At this horizon, we believe that the upside scenario of rapidly falling inflation is now more likely to materialise. Indeed several factors of different nature can push prices down: easing gas prices, combined tightening of global monetary policies (which has a delayed impact), and normalisation of global value chains thanks to China’s re-opening.
You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below