Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - March 2024

“European PMI data diverge not only in terms of sectors, but also in terms of countries and sub-components.”

Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - March 2024

Macroeconomic focus

European PMIs recovering, but manufacturing / services dichotomy persists

The Eurozone composite PMI for February increased to 49.2 from 47.9, which is still below the expansion threshold but signals a slower pace of the decline in activity and a potential bottoming out. The improvement was driven by a broad stabilisation in services activity up from 48.4 to 50.2, while manufacturing remains in an ongoing contraction, slowing to 46.1 from 46.6. Divergences persist not only between the services and manufacturing sectors, but also across countries and subcomponents. Looking at countries, Germany’s composite activity indicator continued to deteriorate in February at a faster pace (declining to 46.3 from 47 in January); France is contracting at a much slower pace (from 44.6 to 48.1); Italy and Spain improved for the fourth consecutive month in February, confirming their expansion in activity. While Italy recorded a mild increase, to 51.1 from 50.7, Spain expanded at a higher pace, from 51.5 to 53.9. 

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