In 2022, the war in Ukraine impacted the energy supply outlook and also had implications for the net zero path. Security, affordability (in volume and prices) and sustainability of the energy supply were challenged, driving the need to diversify the energy supply mix.
While this has somewhat accelerated the shift towards greener energy sources, it has also led to a more uncoordinated response, as each country moved to secure its own needs. These developments come on top of inflation remaining high, having originally stemmed from the Covid-induced supply bottlenecks, which are becoming less sticky. Taking a long-term view of these disruptive trends, and their implications on long-term asset class forecasts and strategic allocation, we are pleased to share with you the annual update of our capital market assumptions (CMA) publication. Here are ten key takeaways from this year’s edition:
1| Moving towards a «Rocky net zero path» with diverging policies
While the spike in energy costs is adding a sense of urgency to the transition, greater focus on national strategic independence as a consequence of the war in Ukraine is increasing the likelihood of a move towards a disorderly scenario, which is predominant in characterising our baseline.
You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below