All Asset allocation articles – Page 18
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White papersWrite hard and clear about what hurts
Economists have frequently used the alphabet to characterize the profile of the recovery. But one letter does not fit all. It is the duration of the epidemic which will ultimately determine the shape of the recovery. The desynchronisation of cycles should open the door to traditional geographic diversification.
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White papersMarket scenarios and risks - November 2020
This month, we amend the narrative of our central and downside scenario to take into account a larger than expected Covid second wave in Europe and delayed fiscal support in the US. We reduce the probability of our central scenario from 70% to 65% and increase the probability of the downside scenario from 20% to 25%.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - November 2020
The US economy rebounded in Q3, exceeding our expectations and leading to a further upside revision of our 2020 GDP forecasts. However, given the signs of a progressive deceleration in several economic and behavioural indicators, influenced by the new rise in Covid-19 cases, we are more cautious about the speed at which the economy will enter 2021.
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White papersVideo: Why investors are turning to private assets amid uncertainty
In this video Georg Wunderlin and Johanna Kyrklund discuss the key challenges and benefits of using private assets, as identified by Schroders’ Institutional Investor Study.
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White papersVideo: Why investors are turning to private assets amid uncertainty
In this video Georg Wunderlin and Johanna Kyrklund discuss the key challenges and benefits of using private assets, as identified by Schroders’ Institutional Investor Study.
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White papersPositioning for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election: An Update
Undeniably, 2020 has been an eventful year and the fireworks are likely not yet over. Amidst rising COVID-19 infections and a stuttering economic recovery, investors are preparing for the U.S. Presidential election. While this election may be one of the most contentious in U.S. history, investors should remember that that once the elections pass, much of this noise typically quiets and risk assets are able to resume a trajectory dictated by fundamentals.
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White papersBracing for Winter, Looking Forward to Spring
“Anticipation of much lower levels of uncertainty in 12 months’ time—paired with the after-effects of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, the potential for another fiscal boost to come, and the Federal Reserve’s new, more dovish policy framework—feed into this quarter’s changes to our asset class views.”
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White papersMarkets scenarios & risks - October 2020
This month, we do not amend the narrative of our central and alternative scenario. Economic data confirm a slower recovery path in line with our central scenario and Central Banks maintain their accommodative stace. We maintain the probability of our central scenario at 70%, 20% for the downside scenario and 10% for the upside.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - October 2020
Q3 economic rebound exceeds our expectations on GDP, prompting an upside revision to our August forecasts. Yet, the deceleration in late Q3 of several indicators is keeping us from extrapolating Q3 momentum into Q4. After some softening in 2020 H2, headline inflation will move along a gradual upward trend, stabilising around 2% from mid-2021 with possible temporary overshooting. As November 3 approaches, policymakers’ focus is shifting, with an increased risk that 2020 fiscal policy will become more diluted than expected, and with little visibility on the Phase 4 deal in particular.
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White papersOpportunities today in middle market lending
Institutional investors are struggling to deliver yield, drive growth and meet liabilities amid low rates and economic malaise. Private credit can be an effective alternative source of income, while providing true diversification. This paper considers a range of investment factors as we determine how to incorporate these opportunities into an existing asset allocation strategy.
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White papersEpic Battle or Rope-a-Dope?
Identifying the winner of the rumble between ‘The Japanifier’ and ‘The Stimulator’ is likely to be the key determinant in successful portfolio construction for years to come.
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White papersMarket Perspectives: Covid paralysis recedes as political risk rises
Even after the large risk rally in summer and despite the persistent spreading of Covid-19, equities advanced fast in August (MSCI World up by another 6.6%), helped by recovering data, better-than-expected earnings and vaccine hopes.
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White papersAn earning season better than expected but the valuation issues has not yet been resolved…
There was a substantial decline in Q2 earnings but they turned out to be better than expected; their decline being ultimately less pronounced than during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009, whereas the current recession is much more severe.
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White papersMarkets scenarios & risks - September 2020
We marginally amend the narrative of our central and alternative scenario on the back of recent development. Recent data confirm a slower recovery path in line with our central scenario. We therefore increase the probability of our central scenario from 60% to 70% while reducing the likelihood of the upside alternative scenario from 20% to 10%.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - September 2020
A new Covid-19 outbreak in several states in July and August imposed more caution in reopening the economy, slowing recovery momentum. The labour market remain distressed. In the coming quarters, the US economy is expected to continue along a gradual and progressive recovery path, underpinned by easy monetary policy and a delayed new round of fiscal support.
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White papersThematics: Eurozone government bonds, a supportive mix of remarkable funding progress and ECB QE still to come
Funding progress looked quite encouraging at July end for Eurozone government bonds, as roughly 80% of estimated yearly net issuance have been placed, mostly (more than 50%) in just four months, between April and July. Putting remaining supply in perspectives with ECB flows, the technical picture for EZ government bonds looks friendly to the current environment of low core yields and subsequent, persisting search for carry.
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White papersThematics: Back to school, back to politics?
The macro-economic backdrop has improved, albeit at a slower pace more recently. The European response to the crisis has further strengthened investor sentiment. However, the political picture has changed over the summer in the US and deteriorated in emerging markets.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views – September 2020
The appetite for risk assets has remained strong over the summer lull. This summer season has seen both the confirmation of existing themes and the emergence of new ones. On the former, the decoupling between the real economy and financial markets has proved persistent.
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White papersIs There Opportunity in COVID-19 Valuation Dislocations?
Capital markets have rebounded from their COVID-19-induced lows, but impacted industries have lagged substantially. That pessimism may be overdone in some cases, creating opportunities for multi-asset investors to exploit dislocations.
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White papersTaking savings seriously
A penny saved may be a penny earned, but you still have to save it, and this is a task that’s getting harder and harder in today’s complex financial world. That’s where the Asset Allocation team of the Quantitative Research Group (QRG) at BNP Paribas Asset Management comes in. It seeks to give clients access to all possible financial tools with which they are most likely to secure and increase their savings over the long term.
