All White papers articles – Page 67
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White papersArtificial intelligence and investing: it’s all about the data
Teaching machines how to “think” has been a tantalizing goal since the early days of computing, and recent advances in generative AI have brought us closer to achieving it. However, whether AI-generated “buy/sell/hold” signals can be used for investing is partly a question of whether the value outweighs the risk. One only needs to read a few passages of AI-written content to notice that it is a simulacrum.
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White papers5,500 years old & the next big thing – asset-based finance
Private credit encompasses a dizzying array of strategies – from well-understood corporate direct lending to more esoteric music royalties, fund financing, litigation finance, and real estate credit. Direct lending remains the center of gravity. For allocators looking to build out large scale private credit portfolios, where to go after direct lending can be a challenge. We believe asset-based finance (“ABF”) is the answer – a truly scalable opportunity that focuses on income generation and capital preservation.
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White papersPrivate Credit’s Evolution: Stability, Opportunity, and the Road Ahead
Private credit has undergone a transformation in recent years, and as we head into 2025, the opportunities ahead are clearer than ever. At Arrow Global, we manage and service over €110bn in assets, giving us a deep, data- driven understanding of market performance. The landscape today is shaped by a combination of historical pressures and new trends, and investors who recognise these dynamics will be best positioned for success.
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White papersCentral banks on hold as uncertainty mounts
The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged in the 4.25-4.50% range at its March policy meeting. Citing risks around elevated uncertainty from trade policies, the Fed prefers to wait and see given that the uncertainty is “remarkably high”.
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White papersTopic Modeling with AI Tools
We present a robust topic modeling framework that mitigates overfitting while capturing the evolving nature of discourse. Our approach proposes a dynamic, temporal network-based model that adapts to emerging topics while maintaining semantic stability through alignment with predefined themes.
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White papersWill economic uncertainty knock the Fed off course?
The US Federal Reserve (Fed), once the primary driver of markets, has taken a back seat this year to government actions and politics. So far, it’s been a bumpy ride.
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White papersEuropean Renaissance
A broadening of equity market performance beyond U.S. mega-caps was one of our key themes for 2025—right now, Europe is where it is playing out most notably.
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White papersMarket volatility: Could earnings growth revive the rally?
After a strong rally, markets have turned volatile, with year-to-date declines raising questions about what’s next. For gains to continue, earnings growth must take over—a transition that has historically extended market cycles. While inflation and policy uncertainty risks remain, improving earnings breadth across sectors and industries and potential tailwinds from monetary and fiscal policy could provide support.
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White papersEpochal Shift Sparks a Spike in German Bund Yields
In early March, exceptional market movements were observed as German 10-year Bund yields marked the largest weekly increase since the 1990s. This rare event coincided with Germany’s significant fiscal shift, including proposals for infrastructure fund and reforms to the debt brake. These measures, alongside geopolitical uncertainties and Europe’s response to the manufacturing crisis, have reshaped economic prospects. For investors, the rise in yields and widening credit spreads present compelling opportunities to extend duration and capitalize on attractive market conditions.
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White papersCatch the AI wave: water risk in big tech
Access to usable fresh water is fundamental to livelihoods, health, ecosystems, and the global economy. Water-related natural hazards such as floods and droughts can have such devastating effects that we believe that water-related risks and opportunities can be financially material factors that need to be increasingly integrated into technology sector decisions and the investment strategies that support them.
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White papersEmerging-Market Equities: The Steep Cost of Missing Out
Emerging-market (EM) equities are off to a strong start in 2025, up 4.5% through March 14 in US-dollar terms. But investors could be excused for being wary. After all, emerging markets have struggled over the past decade.
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White papersUnlocking the potential of European Leveraged Loans
We believe that in 2025 the European leveraged loan market will broaden its appeal to investors as a significant asset class to consider. While it has been well established in the US, it has grown significantly in recent years in Europe, with its market size currently close to that of the European high yield bond market.
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White papersWhat is a Defensive Trade Today? Low Vol vs. Quality vs. Bonds vs. Gold
With more investors looking for defensive trades, what counts as a defensive trade in today’s environment? Differences in valuation—and different interpretations of what counts as defensive—mean that not all such trades are equal.
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White papersAI and datacenters: A new source of electricity demand
AI and datacenters are driving a surge in US electricity demand, creating new investment opportunities in the energy sector.
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White papersHarnessing climate data: Advancing data analytics to better integrate physical risks and opportunities
Climate change is no longer a distant, theoretical threat. The impacts are already being felt today with severe societal and financial consequences. And while we have seen an improvement in climate-related financial disclosures over the last decade, particularly regarding transition risks, corporate reporting on physical risks, both acute and chronic, remains limited, incomplete and inadequate.
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White papersUnified Global Alternatives – Hedge Fund Bulletin – February 2025
Risk assets were mixed in February on the back of a less certain geopolitical landscape, prospects for a trade war as well as forecasts for slowing economic growth. Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve signaled that monetary policy was likely to be on hold over the medium term.
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White papersPositioning for a potential Russia-Ukraine war ceasefire
The Trump administration has initiated talks with Russia on a broad range of security issues, including a potential ceasefire agreement. These developments could have significant geopolitical and economic implications. It is important to emphasise that the process remains fluid – at times an agreement may seem imminent, while at others, negotiations appear to stall.
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White papersLDI Market Update – March 2025, the new Dutch pension system and its expected market implications
The Dutch pension landscape will face a major historic change in the coming years, with approximately EUR 1800 billion of assets being transitioned from a Defined Benefit pension system to a Collective Defined Contribution pension system. The transition has consequences for the way Dutch pension funds invest – in particular their interest rate hedging profile will look different.
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White papersA Return to Uncertainty
We believe that even though 2025 is off to a rough start, firms and consumers will continue to adapt, and growth will stabilize over the year. Many of the negative impacts of lower activity in the beginning of the year (weaker consumer spending, weaker consumer confidence and high imports to front-run tariffs) are idiosyncratic and have the potential to be offset in subsequent quarters, resulting in overall growth that is healthy, albeit weaker than 2024.
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White papersInvestment case for water remains buoyant
Investing in the water value chain – including infrastructure, technology, and services – can help investors achieve sustainable returns over the long term. Now is a good time: valuations of high-quality companies demonstrating strong earnings growth, such as those our strategy targets, look compelling after a correction compared to the broader equity market.
