Private credit has undergone a transformation in recent years, and as we head into 2025, the opportunities ahead are clearer than ever. At Arrow Global, we manage and service over €110bn in assets, giving us a deep, data- driven understanding of market performance. The landscape today is shaped by a combination of historical pressures and new trends, and investors who recognise these dynamics will be best positioned for success.
One of the most significant shifts we are seeing is the challenge faced by businesses, loans, and investments made before 2022. These assets have had to withstand a perfect storm – COVID, inflation, and rapid interest rate changes – making refinancing in today’s environment particularly difficult. Banks that were once comfortable extending credit are now reconsidering, and in many cases, the answer is no. This is leading to a surge in restructurings, with many borrowers experiencing payment distress at levels comparable to the peak of the pandemic.
This is where private credit plays a crucial role. We are stepping in to support banks, either by managing restructurings or providing additional capital to bridge the gap. At the same time, equity investment is regaining momentum. With global elections behind us, many investors are moving forward with greater clarity, eager to transact before the next wave of macroeconomic uncertainty arrives.
The key concern for any investor is capital preservation. The fundamental question isn’t whether private credit is attractive—it’s how to maximise returns while ensuring capital remains protected. Quality, transparency, and simplicity go hand in hand. The most experienced investors prioritise opportunities that are easy to understand, straightforward to track, and backed by strong fundamentals.
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