All White papers articles – Page 310
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White papersEconomic and Property Overview: Q1 2020
The first quarter of 2020 was shaped by the coronavirus, by the end of March 2020 a total of 29,474 confirmed cases and 2,352 deaths were reported for the UK. One month after the quarter end, the number of cases and deaths surged to 194,990 and 29,427 respectively. The costs to the British economy have been considerable; government-imposed lockdown measures to slow the spread of the virus have disrupted business activity, knocked consumer confidence and reduced business confidence levels to record lows. The flash PMI’s plunged from 53.0 in February to 37.1 in March, with a figure of 50+ representing economic expansion, it is now widely anticipated that the economy will contract in March.
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White papersHow to Invest in Equities When Guidance Disappears
The COVID-19 shutdown has prompted an unprecedented number of US companies to suspend earnings guidance. Equity investors should focus fundamental research on a wider range of outcomes instead of the overly precise game of predicting short-term estimates—especially during a period of heightened uncertainty.
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White papersCrisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (Update)
Our crisis dashboard includes signals from three areas: 1) public health, 2) the consumer sector and 3) financial markets. By pulling big data from traditional sources (earnings growth and gross domestic product, for example) and nontraditional sources (like Google Trends and Glassdoor), we can create a better mosaic of the road back. Public health, of course, is the key: until there’s a vaccine, the cascading impact of the virus may continue.
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White papersFactor Performance During Times of Crisis Including COVID-19
Why diversifying across well-defined factors is likely to be key in extreme volatility.
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White papersCOVID-19: Will credit markets remain open for business?
While concerns around credit market liquidity have been rising since the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 sell-off has highlighted how fragile liquidity can be during periods of real stress. Colin Purdie discusses the short- and long-term implications for investment grade and high yield credit globally.
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White papersPrivate Equity Perspectives “Moving from Defense to Offense”
David Stonberg, Global Co-Head of Private Equity Co-Investments, provides an update on the private equity market and discusses deal activity in the Co-Investment space.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - May 2020
Heading towards a sharp contraction in H1; the H2 recovery is being shaped by the duration of the crisis and the effectiveness of the unprecedented policy response, once the post-containment normalization phase starts. Since the start of April, both hard and soft data have begun to show the impact on the economy. In one month, the crisis has erased almost the number of jobs added since the GFC, and unemployment moved up sharply to 4.4% from 3.5% one month earlier. Sentiment plunged across business lines, especially in service and consumer sectors. Retail sales fell the most since 1992. Inflation moderated in March.
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White papersThematics Views - May 2020
Over the last few weeks, significant stabilisation plans have been announced across advanced economies and in addition true stimulus plans are now under consideration. Recent empirical studies show that fiscal multipliers could be much larger in the current depressed context than during normal times. We believe this could boost the recovery path of corporate dividends going forward, in Europe in particular.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2020
After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place. On the bull side, extraordinary policy actions continue to propel market sentiment (signals of virus-peaking in Europe and hopes of sooner-than-expected re-opening). On the bear side, deteriorating fundamentals from the earnings season and the sustainability of the mounting debt pile will be key risks. The tug of war between sentiment and fundamentals is just the first in a long list of battles in course.
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White papersThe Widening Emerging-Developed Market Gap
In our previous paper on the impact of rapidly growing budget deficits in Japan, Western Europe and the US, we examined the relationship between debt levels and the short and long-term interest rates over time for 12 developed economies.
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White papersContraction > recovery > late cycle: a cycle round trip in three years
The pandemic outbreak altered the cycle of financial regimes we had in mind at the end of 2019, with consequences extending over the medium term: after a sharp contraction in 2020, 2021 will see a “recovery” in the growth and profit cycle with a rebound in risky assets while in 2022, we expect a normalization towards a late cycle.
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White papersMarkets Scenarios & Risks - May 2020
The potential easing of lockdown measures bring some light at the end of the tunnel. This is particularly the case in Europe where several countries are opening back shops, manufacturing capabilities or services. Data show that the worse is probably over in Italy and France for instance, but in the US, many states such as New York remain in an acute phase of the outbreak. Moreover, emerging countries are still at the beginning of the pandemic. Although it is too early to draw a conclusion, the low level of death toll registered so far in Africa gives hope for a more benign impact than feared. On one hand, these countries’ infrastructures will make the disease mo
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White papersPublic Engagement Report Q1 2020
The Public Engagement Report highlights some of the stewardship activities undertaken by EOS at Federated Hermes on behalf of its clients over Q1 2020.
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White papersFact-finding and Fortune-telling in U.S. Real Estate
Barings’ John Ockerbloom and Colin Gordon discuss the material consequences of COVID-19 for the real estate markets broadly as well as sector by sector—and predict how real estate portfolios may change in the years ahead.
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White papersThree Reasons to Consider a Long-Term Allocation to Small-Caps
The volatility driven by COVID-19 and the fall in oil prices has created much uncertainty—but it has also provided a potential opportunity to make long-term investments at attractive prices.
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White papersSix Considerations for LPs Navigating Private Market Uncertainty
When it comes to finding clarity in an environment mired in uncertainty, an open dialogue between LPs and GPs is as critical as ever.
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White papersEquities: Finding Long-term Growth Amid Current Volatility
Barings’ Global Head of Equities, Dr. Ghadir Cooper, discusses the impacts of COVID-19, the opportunity for companies capitalizing on structural growth trends from technology to demographics, and the integral role of ESG in fundamental analysis.
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White papersASEAN: Where Positive Demographics Meet Supportive Secular Trends
Recent market volatility has created what we view as an attractive opportunity in ASEAN equities—particularly to tap into selective structural growth stories at compelling valuations.
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White papersCOVID-19 and beyond: Three predictions for transport infrastructure
Constant reminders that COVID-19 ‘does not discriminate’ seem in stark contrast to the social and economic consequences playing out in front of us. Some sectors are clearly being hit harder than others – perhaps none more so than transport. Laurence Monnier looks at the long-term implications for the industry and its supporting infrastructure.
