White papers - all assets – Page 241
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White papers
Macroeconomic Picture - July 2020
United States: while hard data help size the lockdown-induced impact on Q2 activity and production, soft and high-frequency data are showing a gradual pickup. As pent-up demand comes through, activity will rebound in Q3, followed by further improvement in Q4. We expect GDP to drop by 4.5%-6.5% y/y in 2020, followed by a rebound of 3.0- 4.0% y/y in 2021, and to return to its pre-Covid-19 level by mid-2022. Lockdowns have also impacted inflation, which is driven by shifts in demand and has exhibited short-term weaknesses in 2020, with reflating forecast in 2021 on base effects and a pickup in demand.
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White papers
Fiorino: the purpose of pandemic banking
In the latest instalment of Fiorino, our blog focused on deciphering complexity in global financials, we assess the resilience of banks as they prepare to finance businesses during the disruption caused by the pandemic.
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White papers
Just what the doctor ordered
When you’ve got a sore knee, you don’t go see a brain surgeon.
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White papers
The Trough is in—Let the Healing Begin
While there is still a long path to recovery, global June flash PMIs confirmed we have passed the trough as contraction eased. The U.S. Employment report will be released next week, and the pressure is on for Britain and Japan to come up with a deal.
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White papers
How the COVID-19 Crisis Validates Sustainable Investing
The economic and market challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic have put investors through a trial by fire this year. Yet the crisis has also validated sustainable investing strategies focused on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.
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White papers
HKD: sailing through the turbulence
Caught in the struggle between Beijing and Washington, can Hong Kong pull through the hardship without special trade status? Is Trump’s announcement symbolic or destructive for the territory? Will the Hong Kong dollar peg fall apart? We review these questions one by one in this analysis.
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White papers
Markets scenarios & risks - July 2020
We marginally amend the narrative of our central and alternative scenario on the back of recent developments. We also increase
the probability of our central scenario from 50 to 60% while reducing the likelihood of the upside scenario from 30 to 20%. -
White papers
Spotlight on Sterling credit - Identifying opportunities
The strong recovery in sterling credit in Q2 can mask some underlying developments within the index, creating both risk and opportunity. Much of the current attractive credit premium at the overall index level may be attributed to a relatively small number of sectors and issuers, while in the current economic climate, even those sectors traditionally considered lower risk, may be more vulnerable than many investors think.
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White papers
Thematics views - July 2020
Covid-19 is a symmetric shock with asymmetric outcomes. Existin imbalances within Europe such as public debt, economic models or vision for the union, turn to cracks and the EU is facing fragmentation risks. However, the EU should be able to get over it as it did with the Global Financial Crisis.
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White papers
Weekly Investment Update – 24 June 2020
The number of countries lifting their COVID-19 lockdowns is increasing, and sentiment indicators are picking up. Levels of mobility are accelerating. This should help the real economy to spring back at a faster pace than was originally envisaged. Data appears to be bottoming and markets are expecting it to improve at a stronger pace going forward.
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White papers
“Build Back Better”: COVID-19 Brings the “S” from ESG into Focus
Dislocations resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic shine a light on ESG issues.
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White papers
Why pension funds should consider impact investing
Besides supporting pension funds in achieving their financial goals, impact investing helps them to meet the growing appetite for integrating sustainability into their portfolios.
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White papers
The day after #8 - Deglobalisation could improve diversification but also exacerbate financial contagion
In recent years world trade dynamics have definitely shown an accentuated inversion of the globalisation trend and its robust contribution to global economic performance. The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) marked a historic turning point in the degree of global economic integration. Since 2007/08 global trade has entered a period of increasingly protectionist policies (trade barriers, national subsidies, national champions), decelerating growth in trade-intensive sectors, rising policy uncertainty and more recently, trade tensions.
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White papers
Defined Benefit pensions de-risking: A covenant and investment view
In the midst of the COVID-19 shock, Felix Mantz from Lincoln Pensions and Joachim Sudre from Aviva Investors explore how defined benefit pension schemes should plan their journey towards an end game and adopt a more holistic approach to risk.
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White papers
Biden’s election momentum and financial markets
Joe Biden has a historically large lead over President Donald Trump in the polls, including in the critical electoral college vote, but that could narrow closer to the election.The slide in Trump’s approval rating was most noticeable among senior citizens and he has not led in a single major poll so far this year, though it should be noted that polls have proved unreliable in the past few elections. To put Biden’s lead in perspective, no prior candidate or President has seen a lead this large at this point of the race. However, Trump still holds onto slightly favourable ratings on the economy. A game changer could be the Democratic party taking control of the Senate, which appared unlikely early this year.
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White papers
Fixed Income: The Fed’s final frontier—negative rates or yield curve control?
What’s next for policymakers on supporting the economy? Dr. Sonal Desai offers her take.
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White papers
Global Investment Views – July 2020
Covid-19 has triggered a sequence of economic and financial market narratives and is giving way to a new status quo characterised by extreme fiscal and monetary measures, to which markets have responded well, though some volatility has returned in the past few days. In effect, these policy measures are painting a new picture, that of a “day after” renaissance.
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White papers
Market weekly – What to expect after the Great Pandemic of 2020 (podcast)
The unprecedented crisis caused by COVID-19 has left asset allocators disorientated. Uncertainty has deepened and the outlook is now for bond and equity returns to be lower for even longer, making the hunt for yield all the more acute for investors.
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White papers
Asset allocation – Dealing with ‘lower for longer’
The unprecedented crisis caused by COVID-19 has left asset allocators disorientated. Uncertainty has deepened and the outlook now is for bond and equity returns to be lower for even longer, making the hunt for yield all the more acute for investors.