Outlooks – Page 121
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White papersEconomic Outlook: Japanification
Political risk is ‘trumping’ economics, with populism, disparate prosperity, and stirrings that globalisation needs to reverse all offering a paradigm shift that may prove as forceful as the fall of communism in 1989, and even the New World Order after 1945.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - July 2019
The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB). Aware investors should recognise that the late cycle phase and mature market trends require improving fundamentals and positive political events to deliver sustainable uptrends in risk assets.
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White papersInvesting in China: Tapping into Long-Term Opportunities
Ghadir Cooper, Global Head of Equities, recently joined a round table with Pensions & Investments to discuss the opportunity set in China. Despite slowed growth and trade concerns, she believes there are several reasons why investors should remain optimistic.
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White papersWhere the Dry Powder Goes Next
Stuart Mathieson and Bryan High, portfolio managers for the Global Special Situations strategy, discuss the outlook for distressed debt investing—and explain how they’re finding opportunities throughout the cycle.
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White papersEuropean elections: not a game changer, opportunities from divergences
The results are broadly in line with what opinion polls had indicated, although with a slight “pro-institution” surprise. Key takeaways are, first, a decline in the votes for the two large political groups which are the social-democrats and the Christian-democrats or moderate right; these two parties had, since 1979, commanded a combined majority in the European Parliament, and this is now over.
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White papersSDG Taxonomy
We believe that companies which contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are capable of creating positive social and environmental impacts – and are also exposed to the drivers of future growth. We created the Hermes SDG Taxonomy to find investment opportunities directly connected to the goals by identifying impactful businesses poised to be the growth champions of tomorrow.
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White papersAutomation For The People: Fintech In The Real World
How are demographics and technological advances changing financial services?
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White papersSpain: Forming A Coalition Will Take Time, But The Picture Looks Benign For Investors
The outcome: The ruling Socialist Party of Pedro Sánchez came first, however without an absolute majority in Parliament. The new, far-right, VOX party also entered Parliament.
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White papersRethinking the Fed’s policy framework
The dovish turn in March 2019 is unprecedented and inconsistent with the Fed’s remit.
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White papersIs Inflation Definitely Dead Or Simply Dormant? Consequences For Central Banks
Inflation never disappears completely. In history, there have been periods when it was dormant, but revivals have always been painful. What is striking at present is the inability of some countries to boost inflation despite low rates, liquidity injection programs… The BoJ and the ECB have made the bet (losing for the moment) that a ultra-accommodative monetary policy would quickly translate into a rise in inflation rates, while the Fed has opted for a “friendly” normalization of its monetary policy, helped in this, it must be said, by a fiscal and tax policy that has never been as pro-cyclical as in recent years (the Trump years).
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - May 2019
Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of emerging markets have also been very strong.
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White papersItaly: no short-term confrontation with the EU, but uncertainty in the mid-term.
In the new forecasts for the 2020 budget and beyond from the Italian government (from the latest economic blueprint, of 9 April: “The Stability and Growth Path, SGP”), its economic projections come much closer to consensus than previous ones, pointing to weaker GDP growth.
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White papersPolitical Brinkmanship
Could U.S. political brinkmanship cause a government shutdown and technical debt default, putting the economy at risk in the fourth quarter?
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White papersFX Leadership
Can the U.S. dollar maintain its leadership of global currencies amid a decelerating economy and the China trade war elevating risk in the United States?
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: A sweet spot, but keep a sharp eye on the macro side
Risky assets have been in a very strong uptrend since the beginning of the year. The key question now is, where do we go from here? There are two main driving forces to focus on in the current context.
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White papersDebt Ceiling Back in Play
The twin threat of a technical debt default and potential government shutdown could resurface later this year, likely affecting equities and Treasuries.
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White papersValuations, BBBs And Policy Change - European Investment Grade Outlook | March 2019
Companies in most developed market economies have enjoyed years of super-low borrowing costs The European IG market has increased in size from a face value of around €800 billion in 2005 to more than €2.1 trillion by the end of January But what might happen to companies were borrowing ...
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2019
If an investor had woken up today after three months and looked at the markets, he/she could reasonably say that not much had changed. The year started on strong footing and risk assets experienced a massive rebound in the first weeks of 2019, erasing most of the losses experienced in one of the most awful Decembers in history. As a result some valuation gaps have been closed somewhat, though not exhausted. Markets switched rapidly from a “fear” to a “greed” mood. Catalysts of the renewed optimism have included the dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s strategy, and increasing signs of progress in the trade negotiations between the US and China.
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White papersH1 2019 - Emerging Markets Charts & Views: Seek opportunities, but be aware of short-term volatility
Emerging markets (EM) started 2019 on a strong footing and, as a result, some excessive valuation gaps have been partially closed. Yet, we continue to see opportunities in all EM segments (equity, bonds in hard currency and in local currency) with a medium to long-term view.
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White papers2019 long-term capital market expectations
We believe the global growth outlook is improving, supported by fiscal stimulus around the world, the pro-growth policies of the incoming US administration and stabilized growth in China. We also see inflation hovering in the moderate zone for the next five to 10 years.
