Outlooks – Page 122
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A dovish ECB, a little relief for the banking sector
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new series of TLTROs starting in September 2019 and changed its forward guidance, with a commitment not to hike rates this year.
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Weightlifting China - how big will it get?
In this paper we look at how investing in China stands currently and a number of possible ways that this might evolve over time.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy - February 2019
After a tough December, which led to an abrupt valuation reset, risk assets rebounded in the first weeks of the year, boosted by a market-sympathetic turn in Fed rhetoric and an increased optimism on trade negotiations. As the current reasons for optimism should be confirmed, we believe it is time to re-approach the areas of risk assets where the correction has brought value back, especially in emerging markets.
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Investing in the Low-Carbon Economy
Private capital has never been given such an important role in tackling climate change and de- carbonising the economy. As Philippe Le Houérou, CEO of International Finance Corporation (IFC), says, the private sector “holds the key,” noting that it “has the innovation, the financing and the tools.
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Time to increase risk exposure: start with emerging markets and credit
The excess of pessimism at the end of 2018 resulted in a sharp decline in financial markets and renewed volatility. According to our analysis, market participants priced in twice the slowdown risk that economic fundamentals justified.
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2019 Outlook: Expect a tougher climb
Slower growth. Rising rates. More volatility. 2019 looks to be a year that could be challenging for investors. Yet we believe the markets offer a range of opportunities, and we are finding a number of investment ideas for our clients.
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Ten predictions for 2019: Choppy and frustrating, but no recession
Making predictions is a dicey proposition. In the many years I’ve been making my annual market predictions (more than I’d care to admit), I usually have a clear sense about where things are headed. But 2019 seems to be a tougher year to forecast. In fact, I think it would be pretty easy to make either a bullish or bearish case for the stock market over the coming 12 months.
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Is Government Shutdown a Prelude to Debt Ceiling Debate?
The economic impact from the partial government shutdown is expected to be minimal, but the markets will take notice if the debt ceiling becomes an issue.
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After Multiple Hikes, Could Fed Resort to Cutting Rates Next?
The Fed might be at the crossroads of whether to continue raising interest rates or stand pat in 2019, with some expectations for even a rate cut in 2020.
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Phase Transitions: Major Changes for Markets to Navigate
From the rising cost of capital to the trade war and key demographic changes, markets have to navigate through a series of phase transitions in 2019.
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Event Risk Enters Phase 3: What's At Stake in 2019?
Event risk outcomes could be dragged out in 2019 as issues like the trade war and questions over when the Fed might halt rate hikes simmer in markets.
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Global Perspectives: 2019 Outlook
The new year brings new challenges and new opportunities for investors. The investment professionals of Principal Global Investors look at the regional macroeconomic outlooks and examine the major asset classes.
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Market Volatility: Headwinds, from Trade War to Rates, in 2019?
Markets could face headwinds in 2019 from the lag effects of major events that took place in 2018, from the trade war to rate hikes and corporate tax cuts.
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Global Investment Outlook Q4: Distortion, Divergence and Diversification
Volatility has plagued equity markets globally in 2018—most notably emerging markets and US equity markets. As the US economic expansion officially crossed the nine-year mark in 2018, many investors started to wonder when the cycle would change—and what the catalyst might be.
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Quarterly Allocation Views: Taking Solace from the Longer Outlook
Every year, when we publish longer-term capital market expectations, it is always interesting to reflect on how our views evolve over different time horizons. Today, with increased market volatility, divergent economic performance and looming trade wars, can we take solace in a constructive longer-term outlook?
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2019 Capital Markets Expectations: Supportive Environment for Asset Returns
We believe global stocks have greater performance potential than global bonds, supported by continued global growth.
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Strategic Relative Value: Q4 2018
The investment climate is becoming more challenging as previous easy monetary conditions are being reversed. Risk/return expectations need to be re-evaluated, but investment opportunities still exist around the world.
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Global Investment Views: December 2018
This year has proven to be challenging for portfolio construction, as well as regarding returns. To put this into perspective, for 2009-17, our analysis shows that each year, on average, 76% of major asset classes (including different regional government bonds, equity, inflation-linked, currency and commodities) recorded positive performances.
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Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now? What Impacts?
A few days before the important meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, it is important to have a clear view on the trade dispute between the two countries and on the potential impacts of a trade war.
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Italy moves towards an Excessive Deficit Procedure, but a change of attitude is in the air
This large and unprecedented deliberate breach of the so-called “preventive arm” measures therefore calls for moving Italy into the “corrective arm” of the Stability and Growth Pact.