Outlooks – Page 123
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Inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead
Our inescapable truths are the economic forces and disruptive forces we think will shape the investment landscape over the years to come.
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Morocco: moderate economic risks
Growth is expected to slow down compared to 2017 but should stabilise at around 3% this year and in 2019.
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What lies ahead for the US economy and markets?
The robust performance of the US economy in 2018 has led to the supremacy of US risk assets compared to the rest of the world. Moving towards the end of the year and into 2019, global investors have started to raise questions about whether the US economy and business sector will continue to shine, how inflation will evolve, and which direction the Federal Reserve will take going forward.
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US Midterm election: A divided Congress opens two possible scenarios
Key takeaway: In the midterm election Democrats win the House and the GOP (Grand Old Party) strengthens its position in the Senate.
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Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q4 2018
We stick to the view that 2018 will be the peak of the global economic cycle. 2019 will most likely be a year of deceleration albeit with still above trend growth, before a further slowdown of growth towards potential in 2020.
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Central European countries: Outlook to 2020
Global growth resynchronised in 2017. In this particularly bullish environment, Central European countries “outperformed” with growth rates of between 4% and 6%.
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Client Focus: Women in Investment Management
In investing and other arenas, women are trending higher—and their diverse voices, together, can improve decision-making and success.
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Global Investment Views: November 2018
The late cycle narrative behind the autumn market malaise
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Bavarian elections: European political landscape continues to evolve
The election result in Bavaria marked the defeat of the conservative CSU, which lost its absolute majority, and of its junior ally, the SPD.
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Late cycle features at play: more pain, but not the end of the game
Market sell-off: a late cycle feature where uncertainty due to tariffs, rates and oil prices are sending some red signals.
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US midterm election: potential economic agenda and market implications
In the upcoming US Midterm elections on November 6, there are high expectations of divided Congress, with the Democratic Party taking control of the House of Representatives and the Grand Old Party retaining control of the Senate.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: October 2018
The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year.
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Italian budget proposal under scrutiny
The key points of the budget law. The Italian Government negatively surprised the markets by announcing a substantially increased budget deficit target for 2019-2021 to 2.4% in a move that could undermine the potential to reduce the Italian debt burden (130% of GDP) in the coming years.
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Global Investment Views: October 2018
The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey, Argentina and South Africa) contributed to the almost indiscriminate repricing of EM assets, starting with plummeting EM currencies.
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Robust asset allocation for robo-advisors
In the last few years, the financial advisory industry has been impacted by the emergence of digitalization and roboadvisors. This phenomenon affects major financial services, including wealth management, employee savings plans, asset managers, private banks, pension funds, banking services, etc.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2018
Italian budget discussions are going to intensify as the 27th of September approaches, date of publication of the document outlining the new budget law and when there should be more clarity on the key economic projections and deficit targets.
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The Next Recession: Three Critical Warning Signs
Is the U.S. heading toward a recession? We examine three critical warning signs and conclude that the next downturn could be different from the 2008 crisis.
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Global Investment Views: September 2018
The year began with a synchronised global recovery as most economies benefited from a buoyant environment. The risk of inflation and CB mistakes dominated investors’ fears.
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10 years after Lehman: A reality check for the future
It has been 10 years since the collapse of Lehman marked the beginning of the Great Recession, which threw the global economy into its deepest economic crisis since the 1930s.
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Expect the bumpy ride to continue
Investors have been buffeted by a large number of negative headlines in 2018. We remain of the view that tightening global liquidity conditions are likely to exacerbate market volatility.