Outlooks – Page 5
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White papersU.S. election: Policy and positioning
Heading into a contentious U.S. election season, investors need to avoid the noise and remain focused on the factors that will drive markets in the period ahead, including U.S. trade policy (particularly with China), geopolitics (particularly any impact on oil markets), and fiscal deficit management (given the CBO projection that the U.S. budget deficit is set to rise to 122.4% of GDP by 2034).
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White papers2024 U.S. election: The importance of staying invested
It can be easy for investors to let their political persuasions impact their long-term financial judgment. However, allowing the outcomes of elections, particularly ones as polarized as what investors are facing this fall, to trigger an adjustment to portfolio allocations or even a withdrawal from markets entirely, has historically ...
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White papersPositioning for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Calls from senior members of the Democratic party finally became too great this past weekend, with President Biden bowing out of the 2024 U.S. Presidential race. He will not be seeking a second term.
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White papersElection 2024: Economics, policy and positioning for a soft landing
The S&P 500 enjoyed a solid start to the year, fueled by the Federal Reserve embracing optimism about inflation without sacrificing growth. During Q2, however, evidence of still sticky inflation has reduced the number of expected rate cuts, weighing on market sentiment and resulting in more modest equity gains.
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White papersThe perfect storm: Deglobalisation’s headwinds
Globalisation - the rising interconnection of the world’s economies and populations, driven by international trade in technology, services, goods as well as the flow of investment and information - is facing at least five different head winds. Let me discuss them in turn and indicate how I believe they could be tackled.
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White papersMid-Year Outlook 2024 It’s all about confidence
Restrictive monetary policies and fading fiscal expansion are curbing growth and inflation in major economies. Recessions look unlikely but central banks are starting on a new cycle of rate cuts at a time of divergent growth rates, sticky price pressures, constrained fiscal policy and rising geopolitical risks. Despite the uncertain outlook, markets in some regions are priced for the best outcome. We therefore favour asset allocations that can withstand different scenarios.
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White papersAI fever: Has it gotten too hot?
Investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence has gripped the financial markets and shows no signs of loosening its hold.
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White papersInvestment outlook
At the midpoint of 2024, we are focused on a number of risks posed by fissures and fault lines in the economic terrain — and the need to navigate them successfully. Weakening global growth, still-sticky inflation, diverging monetary policy around the globe and growing political uncertainty all add to the uncertain footing. How might investors find their away around these cracks? In our view, the following portfolio themes point in the right direction.
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White papersMegatrends: Transformative technology
Artificial intelligence (AI), specifically generative AI (GenAI), is poised to affect virtually every sector of the global economy and transform the workforce.
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White papersClimate inclusion: driving the transition for low income consumers
Climate change is poised to disproportionately impact low-income and vulnerable populations. Global temperature increases, increasingly severe storms, and irregular patterns of drought and rainfall are estimated to push up to 130 million people into poverty by 2030. By 2050, as many as 200 million may be forced to migrate. This highlights the universal nature of climate change; it doesn’t respect borders, impacting vulnerable regions and populations regardless of where emissions originate.
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White papersFollowing key elections, where is Europe headed?
Capital Group political economist Talha Khan shares his views on the political shifts taking place across Europe. He also discusses the upcoming US Presidential election and its potential impact on Europe, as well as the tangible concerns of political risk that investors now face.
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White papersOn My Mind: Let’s spend lots of money! US elections and fiscal prospects
In this “On My Mind,” I want to focus on the US fiscal outlook, its relationship to inflation, and the implications for interest rates and bond yields. Let’s start with a snapshot of the US federal govern ment’s fiscal deficit for the past three decades. For the first half of this period, fiscal policy looked fairly prudent, and the deficit averaged slightly more than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP).
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White papersReal Estate Debt: Navigating the New Frontier
The Fed’s campaign against inflation, changes in bank regulations and stress in the office sector have collectively created an attractive investment environment for real estate debt investors, in our view. Commercial mortgages are offering yields not seen since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). While capital market conditions are operating effectively for low-risk mortgages, they remain mostly dislocated for higher-risk mortgages, thereby presenting compelling investment opportunities.
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White papersFive-year investment outlook
Our analysis shows the dispersion of returns across domestic equity and bond markets will decline over the next five years. This suggests investors should consider investing across sectoral lines and allocate more of their capital to corporate bonds.
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White papersQ3 2024 Outlooks: Opportunities and Risks with the World at a Crossroad
The global economy has continued its momentum, retaining a level of resilience that has withstood a flurry of challenges ranging from tighter monetary policy and borrowing conditions to a rise in geopolitical tensions. The US has powered global growth amid divergent results around the world, and with inflation cooling, central banks have either cut interest rates or signaled their intention to loosen policy.
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White papersWhat You Didn’t Know About European Offices
Are European offices broken? We don’t think so. They’re just different.
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White papersThird Quarter 2024 Market Outlook
PGIM Fixed Income’s Third Quarter 2024 Market Outlook
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White papersUK election delivers no-drama outcome
Britain’s Labour Party returned to power for the first time in 14 years after winning a large majority in parliamentary elections that were held on July 4. Labour, led by Keir Starmer, won more than 410 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, while the Conservative Party suffered its worst-ever performance.
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White papersPolicy and Politics
The first-quarter inflation bump is behind us, but the risks of a monetary policy error and electoral shocks have risen. While we believe the fundamental economic outlook for the next 12 – 18 months remains positive for risky assets, the potential for monetary policy errors and election-related volatility overshadows the coming months. These risks prevent the AAC from taking a more overweight view on risky assets, and keep us focused on quality assets and portfolio balance.
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White papersEquity Outlook: Making Way for the Magnificent Others
Despite narrow market concentration, we see opportunities in high-quality stocks that haven’t yet been rewarded. Global stocks posted healthy gains in the first half of 2024, although second-quarter performance moderated from the previous quarter’s breakneck pace. With inflation still sticky and equity returns concentrated, the time may be right for investors to broaden their horizons.
