Outlooks – Page 101
-
White papersFocus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario
If we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels. In Italy, the government is estimating an 8% GDP contraction this year, followed by a 4.7% YoY rebound in 2021. In our analysis, we consider two possible reference scenarios for 2020 growth: -8.0% YoY (as per the government scenario) and -12.0% YoY.
-
White papersEmerging Markets Charts & Views - Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities
Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading many countries into recession.
-
White papersFranklin Emerging Market Debt Opportunities Team: Market Update – Emerging From the Crisis
Perspective from Franklin Emerging Market Debt Opportunities team.
-
White papersA letter from Asia
As the initial epicentre of the coronavirus, many lessons can be learnt from China: For example, the importance a swift government response (resting on lessons learnt during the SARS outbreak in 2002-2003) with total or partial lockdowns across many cities alongside other mobility restrictions and intensified health screening.
-
White papersMulti-Asset Allocation Views: Hold the Course
As the world adjusts to life with the specter of COVID-19, it is increasingly clear that much has changed. We have become used to social distancing and unimaginably weak economic data. However, although we have become familiar with these new features of our lives, we hope that they will not be with us for too long!
-
White papersAsset Class Return Forecasts - Q2 - 2020
In our latest analysis released at the beginning of the year, we had laid out our medium-term outlook as a correction of the business cycle, including an economic slowdown, yield curve inversion, a return to lower bound policy rates, and subdued inflation prints. The global shocks resulting from the eruption of the coronavirus pandemic have significantly altered the sequence of economic and financial phases, shortened the timeframe and expanded the scale of the ripple effect.
-
White papersMarket weekly – Riding the digital transformation with US equities
Lockdowns around the world have boosted the uptake of new technologies, speeding us into an even more digital-centric future. US equity markets offer investors access to such disruptive technology. To hear more about the opportunities, Daniel Morris, our senior investment strategist, catches up with Pam Hegarty, senior portfolio manager and equity analyst for US equities in our Boston office.
-
White papersThe day after #3 - ESG Resilience During the Covid Crisis: Is Green the New Gold?
Without a doubt, the coronavirus is shaking the financial industry like never before. This is not the first time the world has faced a pandemic of this scale, nor is the first time that policy makers, business leaders and pundits have asked: “Is it different this time around? Are we at a turning point?”
-
White papersRisk (Modelling in Global Aggregate Portfolios) in a Time of COVID
John Beck, Director of Fixed Income contemplates how risk is measured in our portfolios.
-
White papersThe 20-Year Bond in a Brave New World
The US Government has responded to COVID-19 in unprecedented ways to produce a huge and rapid fiscal policy response. To fund this policy, the Treasury announced that it will issue over $800 billion in Treasury securities over the next three months. Including issuance completed in April, the issuance number rises to over $1 trillion. That is a massive issuance schedule. Here is what is upcoming.
-
White papersThe Stock Market Is Not the Economy
COVID-19 has damaged a lot of things, including the link between the S&P 500 and the U.S. economy.
-
White papersMarket Commentary - Swoosh Recovery vs. Liquidity Splash
The exit from the lockdowns is proceeding cautiously. If anything the number of new cases globally has picked up over the past week, flirting with 100k on 15 May, the highest since 16 April (see our latest Facts and Figures, including new modelling). Scientists keep warning about the risk of relaxing social distancing too quickly. In the meantime the global economy struggles – we slightly cut our 2020 global growth forecast from -3.5% to -4%. The risks are skewed to the downside. The WHO reiterated concerns about a deadlier second wave this autumn and winter.
-
White papersWhat We Already Know About The Recovery
And why bonds and stocks may not be pricing in such different outcomes.
-
White papersInvesting in China: Consumers and technology recovering
This Equity Markets issue offers a window into post COVID-19 economic recovery.
-
White papersFixed Income: Health Uncertainty vs. Economic Uncertainty. The Need To Safely Restart Growth
Policymakers face difficult tradeoffs. Fixed Income Views explores macro and sector outlooks.
-
White papersQuick Thoughts: A New Globalization Emerges
Our Head of Equities Stephen Dover gives his take on globalization in the wake of COVID-19
-
White papersCOVID-19 Science and Economics
In the second installment of our COVID-19 series, we discusses the scientific and economic implications of the path to recovery with research analyst Camilla Oxhamre Cruse, who has a Ph.D. in medicine and M.Sc. in biochemistry, and global strategist Olga Bitel.
-
White papersWhat We Can Learn from China’s Rapid Normalization
China is further along the coronavirus curve than much of the rest of the world and is on a fast path toward normal. We think its experience bears close watching—not only because China is a major contributor to global economic activity, but also because there will likely be important takeaways for the rest of the world as other countries plan their own reopenings.
-
White papersWill COVID-19 prove a watershed for ESG?
COVID-19 has thrown new light on the interdependencies in human and natural ecosystems, and the vulnerabilities of a closely networked world. Aviva Investors’ responsible investment specialists ask whether this will prove a turning point for environmental, social and governance issues.
-
White papersThe Historical Impact of Economic Downturns on Private Equity
An assessment of private equity return patterns in two recent significant downturns.
