Latest Manager Research – Page 382
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White papersFocal Point US outlook: a soft landing supported by the Fed
We expect the US economy to cool this year. Growth will likely ease from 2.2% to 1.6% because of the full effect of tariffs becoming effective during the first half of the year. The lagged impact of the 2019 rate cuts and that of the additional reduction we expect for Q2 will engineer a soft landing of the economy, despite still substantial headwinds. The Fed will take big steps to adapt its monetary policy strategy to a low-inflation, low-interest rates world. The broad view of this strategy should be clearer by summer, but the dovish bias it will most likely produce will be welcomed by markets.
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White papersThree trends to watch in UK long-income real estate
In an era of low interest rates and rising maintenance costs, the benefits of long-income assets within UK real-estate portfolios are hard to ignore. Tim Perry looks at three key trends that are influencing the UK long-income market.
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White papersRisks Rebalanced - Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 1Q 2020
On Tuesday, January 14, Erik Knutzen, CIO of Multi-Asset Class, Gorky Urquieta, Co-Head of Emerging Markets Debt, and Conrad Saldanha, Senior Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Equity, discussed the AAC’s latest views on navigating the current market environment.
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White papersStable Growth, Policy in Transition - Fixed Income Investment Outlook 1Q 2020
With a stable economy likely to provide a positive environment for credit this year, shifts in monetary policy could contribute to more frequent volatility in fixed income markets, while political developments will be an ongoing risk.
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White papersThink global: which markets have the highest risk of retail disruption?
Retail sales are migrating online and away from physical stores, damaging the investment returns of retail property. The process is underway in all developed retail markets, but the pace of migration is uneven.
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White papersFiat Money Vs. Cryptocurrencies / Private Vs. Public Digital Currencies…
The first part of this study analysed the competition between USD, RMB and EURO and presented the challenges for China and Europe to develop a genuine international currencies, having the capacity to compete with the USD. However, currency competition goes well beyond the “simple” competition between sovereign currencies (USD, EUR, RMB, JPY, CHF…).
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White papersFX wars vs. Currency Wars USD vs. EUR vs. RMB vs. …
The USD is by far the most important international currency, although declining in recent years, especially as regard central banks’ FX reserves. New currencies have emerged (of which the RMB), central banks diversify their portfolios (especially in Asia), while some “old” currencies gain ground (the JPY and gold, to some extent). Moreover, even if two contenders exist at present (the euro and the RMB), the USD is the only currency to be considered as an international currency as regard all its characteristics: reserve currency, invoicing currency, vehicle currency, reference currency …
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White papersStrategic Relative Value – Q1 2020
Persistent central bank liquidity and easing geopolitical tensions should support a continued rally in risk assets this year. However, the significant disconnect between elevated valuations and only modest economic growth means risk assets are vulnerable to a deterioration in sentiment so investors should also maintain some defensive positioning.
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White papersWhat Can German Equity Investors Expect in the Months Ahead?
While the phase one U.S.-China trade deal may provide a near-term boost for German equities, there are a number of risks on the horizon that could introduce volatility in the months ahead—making stock selection as important as ever.
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White papersThe Green Swan: Central Banking And Financial Stability In The Age Of Climate Change
Climate change poses new challenges to central banks, regulators and supervisors. This book reviews ways of addressing these new risks within central banks’ financial stability mandate. However, integrating climate-related risk analysis into financial stability monitoring is particularly challenging because of the radical uncertainty associated with a physical, social and economic phenomenon that is constantly changing and involves complex dynamics and chain reactions.
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White papersGoing Viral: The Coronavirus or a Central Bank Holding Pattern?
Wuhan goes on lockdown while the U.S. shifts trade truce considerations to Europe. Meanwhile, Central banks remain optimistic for strengthening global growth, and we’re vigilant for potential insurance cuts from the BoE next week.
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White papersSpotlight on listed infrastructure - The attractions to pension schemes
Infrastructure typically gives investors access to regular, reliable and secure cashflows that grow over time and thus provide some protection from inflation generated from real, physical assets.
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White papersInvestment Case: Continental European real estate
Continental Europe’s real estate market offers investors the scope to tap into a wide opportunity set, capitalise on the region’s economic recovery and reap the benefits of diversification, while keeping risk down to levels consistent with core, income-driven investments.
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White papersFlexible credit: six drivers of conviction
What are the key determinants of an active credit fund manager’s decision to invest? From curve and convexity through to sustainability and sizing, we assess six drivers of conviction.
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White papersSpectrum Asset Management Outlook for 2020
Some macro risks—such as Brexit—appear to be de-escalating, but uncertainties continue; trade war negotiations are likely to overhang sentiment into the United States election.
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White papersEMD in 2020: A year of “alpha,” and the return of the “political economy”
As we end another tumultuous year for emerging markets (EM), it’s a good time to pause and reflect on what the start of the third decade of the 21st century holds for emerging market debt (EMD) investors.
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White papersFrom trend to norm - Real estate investment and sustainability
As lawmakers, investors and tenants continue to raise the bar in terms of their expectations, integrated sustainability strategies have become an essential part of real estate investment management and a key to maintaining the value of these investments.
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White papersLow rates, northern lights and net zero: UK infrastructure in 2020
In the second of a two-part series, Darryl Murphy assesses the current state of the UK infrastructure market and the likely drivers of transaction activity in 2020.
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White papersDelta: our 2020 credit-sector outlook
From electric-vehicle sales to US pharmaceuticals and the strength of European banks, our credit analysts provide their 2020 outlooks for industry sectors.
