Latest Manager Research – Page 37
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White papersFields of Dreams: The Growing Disparity Between Yield Forecasts and Reality
After under-promising and over-delivering for much of the first half of the last decade, realized end-of-season yields have come in below early season United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates consistently since 2019 for corn and 2022 for soybeans. When it comes to yield projection, past performance is assumed to inform future results. In fact, the most common approach to generating a basic estimate of US corn and soybean yields involves deriving an “unconditional” linear trend estimate from historical yield data starting in the 1980s.
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White papersIncreased Transition Risk Premium Based on Higher Costs & Better Data
The latest data on temperature and sea level rises confirm that climate change continues to advance. Despite reduced emissions from both the EU27 and the US, global emissions growth continues. These trends might push the Paris accord target of 1.5 degrees by 2050 out of reach when we consider all industries and countries.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - July-August 2025
Global equities reached new record levels in July on expectations of trade deals, easing of US tariff threats and hopes of a short-term boost to US growth from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). This has happened despite US tariffs moving higher (when compared with before Trump came to power), indicating some complacency in risk assets. On the other hand, bond yields in the US, the UK, Europe, and Japan are reflecting concerns over debt sustainability.
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White papersThe need for stronger US fiscal policy
US Treasury bonds have long provided domestic and foreign investors a modest yield that was assumed to be risk free. Yields (and thus prices) could be volatile, but the risk of the US government defaulting on its debt was regarded as so low that US Treasury yields became a benchmark for all other government and corporate debt: If the US government had zero risk of default, the default risk of any other borrower could be simply measured by looking at the additional yield it offered over a comparable Treasury security.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2025
In the wake of an eventful quarter, we believe that more benign inflation data and softer but still positive growth could soon prompt the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts, joining other central banks that have maintained easing polices. While tepid, economic growth remains positive globally and, in the U.S., could improve toward the end of the year and into 2026. In this environment, we currently favor exposure to shorter-term U.S. Treasuries, as well as opportunities in high yield and local currency-denominated emerging market debt, with tariff-related volatility posing a key risk.
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White papersRenewed threats to the Fed’s independence
Political pressure now threatens the Fed’s operational independence, prompting sharp market reactions—including a surge in long-term yields, a weaker dollar, and elevated volatility—which underscores the crucial role of central bank autonomy in maintaining market confidence and stability.
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White papersUK Real Estate: Talking Points July 2025
Welcome to our quarterly snapshot of real estate market trends, using transparent capital and occupational market data points to summarise key implications for asset allocation and performance prospects.
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White papersEquity Market Outlook: 3Q 2025
We maintain our belief that economic growth is likely to slow, but that a severe U.S. downturn appears unlikely. Against this backdrop, we remain constructive on global equity markets heading into the second half of 2025 and highlight potentially more attractive opportunities.
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White papersThe reality of risk: Unearthed opportunity in growth equity impact
Growth equity impact supports enterprises poised to solve critical societal and environmental challenges. Concerned about an emerging funding gap, M&G Investments has partnered with Phenix Capital Group, a leading global impact investing consulting group, to explore the reasons this gap exists and the implications. Combining M&G research with the Phenix Impact Database, we present a data based analysis of this critical issue.
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White papersU.S. CRE deal volume up 7% in 2Q 2025
U.S. CRE deal volume rose 7% in Q2 2025, driving a 13% year‑over‑year increase led by strong office, industrial, and retail activity.
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White papersIn Conversation – Navigating the shifting landscape of private debt
Against a backdrop of wider macroeconomic uncertainty, investment in private credit in Europe continues to grow, supported by a broadening range of asset classes as well as welcome regulatory developments. Here, our infrastructure investment experts discuss their views on the road ahead for infrastructure investing.
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White papersWhy homes with social value are a winning formula
Discover how the build-to-rent sector is transforming communities and driving long-term investment value.
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White papersNorth America real estate market outlook Q3 2025
The latest US data has been mixed. Firms are investing, but consumption momentum has been weaker. We discuss the impact on real estate.
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White papersSummer Twists: Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Treasuries
As expected, the 2017 tax cuts are being made permanent. Additional cuts are also being introduced, including an exemption on tips and overtime, deductions for seniors, and an increase in the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 (this allows households, in particular, to deduct their property taxes from their federal income tax).
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - July-August 2025
“While the OBBBA’s tax cuts may stimulate the US economy in the short run, rising trade tariffs this summer could limit gains. The bill also heightens medium-term growth risks.”
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White papersAntifragile? Renewable energy infrastructure after the One Big Beautiful Bill
Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.
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White papersThe Hidden Edge: Why Granular European Assets Hold the Key to Outperformance
In today’s complex and fragmented European real estate market, opportunities are available if you are able to recognise them and are willing to do the hard work. But to see and recognise them you need to have your “boots on the ground,” your “hands on the data,” and your “head in the realities of the local market’s engine rooms.” In Germany, particularly, I’ve come to see that the greatest value is not just found but created, through rigorous granular origination and disciplined active asset management. That is the strategy we’ve embraced at Arrow Global, and it’s one I believe that offers the best chances of value creation.
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White papersHigh Yield: Keep Calm & “Carry” On
The global economic landscape remains in flux as investors navigate a complex mix of resilient data, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical tension. In the U.S., recession probabilities have receded but not disappeared. While hard data—such as employment and consumption—has held up, soft indicators continue to flash caution. Inflation remains sticky in places, and the full impact of recently introduced tariffs has yet to be felt. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears content to remain on hold, awaiting further clarity before adjusting policy.
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White papersPrivate credit: how technology can drive efficiencies
We’ve seen the growth in the private credit market, what are some of the key drivers?
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White papersThe changing world of institutional credit
The traditional boundaries between public and private lending are rapidly dissolving, creating new opportunities – and new challenges – for investors.
