Latest Manager Research – Page 141
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - October 2022
We maintain the content and probabilities of our scenarios. Note that some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets. It would take a combination of risk factors for the downside scenario to materialise. The downside is counterbalanced by an upside scenario, that of a rapid decline in inflation due to an easing of gas prices and/or to the combined tightening of global monetary policies, the impact of which can be underestimated.
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White papersToo early for a Fed pivot
The flattening of the US yield curve will depend on the persistence of core inflation and on the impact of monetary tightening on growth. The more resilient the US economy proves to interest-rate hikes, the more aggressively the Fed will have to tighten monetary policy, thereby increasing the risk of recession. We have gone from ‘bad news is good news’ to ‘good news is bad news’.
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White papersTLTRO in the context of ECB policy normalisation
TLTRO repayments and redemptions will drive incoming ECB passive QT over the next few quarters. So far, banks have repaid a small amount of liquidity, while the ECB’s recent decision on remuneration of excess reserves has helped keep current excess liquidity abundant, aiming at a smooth transmission of its monetary policy.
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White papersSDG Engagement Equity Q3 2022 case study
ROIC is the largest publicly-traded, grocery-anchored shopping centre real estate investment trust (REIT) focused exclusively on the west coast of the US.
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White papersRelaxed financial markets look at Lula’s comeback
The first electoral round was won by former President Lula. However, the incumbent, Bolsonaro, performed better than expected. Their economic agendas differ on a number of issues, while risks are more asymmetric under each candidate. Either could benefit from a robust macroeconomic scenario.
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White papersUnited States: a green industrial policy in the making
The US Congress’s August approval of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) came as a surprise to most observers. With the mid-term elections just months away and no majority in Congress, no one expected new legislation to be passed. Yet, the Democrats and Republicans managed to reach a compromise. We discuss below the measures announced to promote the environmental transition, which is the centrepiece of the act.
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White papersPerspectives in today’s real estate market
Uncertainty has increased globally due to inflation and conflict, but real estate continues to offer long-term thematic tailwinds:
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White papersInvesting in the currency of decarbonisation
At Lombard Odier, a core investment conviction is that carbon markets will play a central role in accelerating the global economic transformations as part of a sustainability transition towards a Circular, Lean, Inclusive and Clean model (the CLIC® economy).
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White papersDiversification with opportunity – European real estate
European real estate offers investors the opportunity to diversify their existing portfolio while participating in long-term trends. Swiss private investors, for example, usually focus on the domestic real estate market. However, institutional investors have recognized the opportunities and advantages of European real estate in recent years and have started to introduce foreign investments into their existing portfolios.
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White papersEuropean Politicians Fuel Support for Energy Bills
European policymakers are battling energy prices ahead of winter, while a tight U.S. labor market and elevated CPI data next week should keep the Fed hawkish before November rate hike decisions. In China, will credit growth support the economy and a pickup in internal demand?
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White papersCLOs: Up in Quality
Against a challenging macro backdrop, CLOs look attractive given the strong structural protections and incremental yield on offer—but there is a case to be made for staying up in quality.
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White papersESG Viewpoint – Can mining be a responsible investment?
Its environmental and social impacts can make mining hard to square with a responsible investment approach. As the world shifts away from fossil fuels – a move that increases demand for ‘transition metals’ – we explore the need to think again.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - October 2022
Geopolitical risks, inflation and hawkish central banks translate into a cautious stance on risk assets such as credit, in which, a deceleration in growth (and its impact on earnings) could create concerns over cash flows and liquidity, especially for the lower rated companies. Hence, we prefer US IG and are defensive on HY.
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White papersA better ‘airbag’ makes CHF bonds attractive
The first half of 2022 showed that even safe CHF bonds are not immune from painful losses. After many years of excellent performance, the portfolio with all Swiss bonds, for example, did about as poorly as Swiss equities.
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White papersWhy hold Chinese bonds in multi asset?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we examine Chinese bonds to ascertain whether they warrant greater inclusion in multi-asset portfolios.
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White papersInvestment Opportunities in Private Commercial Mortgage Investments
At approximately $5.2 trillion, just over half the size of the U.S. corporate bond market, the U.S. commercial mortgage market is home to a variety of attractive investment opportunities.
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White papersCapital Commitment
Over ten trillion dollars are allocated to private market funds that require outside investors to commit to transferring capital on demand; most of these funds are Private Equity (PE). We show within a novel dynamic portfolio allocation model that ex-ante commitment has large effects on investors’ portfolios and welfare, and we quantify those effects.
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White papersWhat role can renewables play in strengthening Europe’s energy security?
Winter threatens to bring the first severe European energy crisis in decades. As leaders grapple with potential solutions, renewable energy capacity is in the spotlight.
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White papersThe Meeting Room: Asia ex-Japan, September 2022
Join Jonathan Pines and Sandy Pei for the latest Federated Hermes Meeting Room: Virtual Portfolio Briefing on Asia ex-Japan.
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White papersMarkets on edge despite Bank of England intervention
Sweeping UK government tax cuts sent shockwaves through financial markets as investors and economists queried the wisdom behind the plan.
