Latest Manager Research – Page 107
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White papersMacroeconomic and financial market forecasts - September 2024
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 5 September 2024
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White papersWhen the stars align: Opportunities in global investment grade corporate bonds
The turn in the interest rate cycle toward lower rates potentially provides a strong backdrop for fixed income. And with its high quality, attractive yield and duration profile, we believe investment grade credit could be well positioned to provide investors with strong returns over the coming investment cycle.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - September 2024
Topic of the Month - The JPY carry trade: what’s next?
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White papersAI: Transformative technology 75 years in the making
ChatGPT’s arrival took the world by storm in 2022; it’s better to see it as the latest stage of how technology has been changing our lives for decades.
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White papersPerspectives: Listed REITs - Fall edition
Property sectors with lower economic sensitivity and resilient, structurally-driven demand should outperform amidst the prospect of an economic slowdown
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White papersWill new reforms tackle the ‘Korea discount’?
South Korea’s new ‘Corporate Value-Up Programme’ aims to address the so-called ‘Korea discount’, which sees domestic companies trading at lower price-to-earnings multiples than their global peers.
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White papersU.S. Federal Reserve – a close call
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate cutting cycle this Wednesday. Market expectations are split between a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut, as the decision is complicated by conflicting signals of solid economic activity but a weakening labor market. Rarely have market expectations been so torn, so close to a FOMC meeting.
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White papersGlobal Equity ESG, H1 2024 Report
To make ESG investing truly effective, investors must integrate high-quality data into the investment process. For our Global Equity ESG team, the EU’s Principal Adverse Indicators (PAIs) are a useful tool to support portfolio analysis and direct engagement with companies.
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White papersThe JPY carry trade: what’s next?
A series of weak US data in July questioned the market narrative of a soft landing and brought back fears of recession. This was the main trigger, although a hawkish surprise from the BoJ undoubtedly added fuel to what turned out to be an unusually sharp unwinding of carry trades funded in JPY. The amount of exposure of these carry trades was at an all-time high due to the low level of overall market volatility and the volatility of the JPY itself. So is it over?
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White papersECB cuts rates again this year
“Declining price pressures are leading central banks such as the ECB to reduce policy rates. This, coupled with uncertainty over economic growth, could potentially be supportive for European bonds.”
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White papersBond investing to support positive environmental and social outcomes
Progress on the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development goals is lagging. With the target date of 2030 looming, less than a fifth of the goals are on track. With vital work still to be done, fund managers have an opportunity to address these critical gaps and accelerate progress. Mario Eisenegger, ESG bond manager outlines the role that bond investors can play to generate positive outcomes for both people and planet.
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White papersAddressing climate impacts and nature loss through real assets
The effects of climate change are a megatrend on a global scale, influencing the expected risk-return profile of real assets investments and the opportunity set for investors. The increasing frequency and severity of physical climate hazards, as well as nature loss resulting from changing ecosystems requires new ways of thinking about financial risk and return in real assets investments.
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White papersAddressing climate impacts and nature loss through real assets
The effects of climate change are a megatrend on a global scale, influencing the expected risk-return profile of real assets investments and the opportunity set for investors. The increasing frequency and severity of physical climate hazards, as well as nature loss resulting from changing ecosystems requires new ways of thinking about financial risk and return in real assets investments.
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White papersMacroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - September 2024
The rise in the July unemployment rate to 4.3% (latest reading in August is 4.2%) triggered a significant market concern about a possible weaker-than-expected US labour market, raising the risk of an impending recession. We do expect a significant slowdown of the US economy, but not a recession. We expect a significant deceleration in the next few quarters, consistent with a broader weakening of many labour market indicators.
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White papersThe critical role of covenants in Private Credit
Covenants in private credit often act as crucial safeguards, functioning as early warning systems for lenders. They help monitor borrower stability and manage risks, allowing lenders to intervene if deviations from their base case occur.
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White papersThe rise of semi-liquid secondaries funds
The secondary market in private equity consists of transactions where investors buy and sell existing private equity fund interests. In the first half of 2024, the global secondaries market had an estimated volume of USD 68 billion, which represents a 58% increase on the previous year’s 1H volume of USD 43 billion. The market can be broadly categorized into two main segments: GP-led secondaries and LP-led secondaries.
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White papersThe U.S. Election and Energy: More Than Meets the Eye
The presidential candidates have well-known policy profiles on energy, but how could they translate in the real world? The Biden-Harris administration has staked much of its political capital on the energy transition—curbing carbon emissions and encouraging the use of electric cars and renewable energy—while former President Donald Trump is known for his support of the fossil fuel industry and streamlining energy regulation.
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White papersBalance Is Critical for the Obstacles Ahead
Rising inflation may be behind us, but now a nervous market parses every data release for signs of recession. Regular readers know that, in early September, I hear the starting gun for the race to the end of the year. As we get back to our desks after summer breaks, focus turns to end-of-year portfolio results, and calendars fill to review the year’s achievements, lessons and progress, and to begin peering into the year to come.
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White papersUS election debate generates more political than policy buzz
The first debate between the two candidates running in the U.S. presidential race was a fractious exchange that shed little new light on policy details but is likely to be politically consequential.
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White papersThe technology sector – An update after the summer volatility
Volatility may be part and parcel of equity markets, but this summer’s swings stand out. The causes cited for the sell-off included concerns over the outlook for the US economy and an unwinding of yen carry trades. Investors also worried about the risk of the vast sums being invested in artificial intelligence (AI) ultimately not generating sufficient returns. Daniel Morris investigates the AI angle.*
